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A Time-Varying Approach of the US Welfare Cost of Inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen M. Miller

    (Department of Economics, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, Las Vegas, Nevada, 89154-6005 USA)

  • Luis F. Martins

    (ISCTE-IUL Business School, Lisbon, Portugal)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

Abstract

Money demand specifications exhibits instability, especially for long spans of data. This paper reconsiders the welfare cost of inflation for the US economy using a flexible time-varying cointegration methodology to estimate the money demand function. We find evidence that the time-varying cointegration estimation provides a better fit of the actual data than a time-invariant estimation and that the throughout unitary income elasticity only exists for the log-log form over the entire sample period. Our estimate of the welfare cost of inflation for a 10-percent inflation rate lies in the range of 0.025 to 0.75 percent of GDP and averages 0.27 percent. In sum, our findings fall well within the ranges of existing studies of the welfare cost of inflation. Finally, the interest elasticity of money demand shows substantial variability over our sample period.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen M. Miller & Luis F. Martins & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "A Time-Varying Approach of the US Welfare Cost of Inflation," Working Papers 201419, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201419
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    Keywords

    Money Demand Function; Welfare cost of inflation; Time-varying cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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