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On the Instability of Long‐Run Money Demand and the Welfare Cost of Inflation in the United States

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  • MATTEO MOGLIANI
  • GIOVANNI URGA

Abstract

We evaluate the policy implications of measuring the welfare cost of inflation accounting for instabilities in the long‐run money demand for the United States over the period 1900–2013. We extend the analysis and reassess the results reported in Lucas (2000) and Ireland (2009), also considering the recent theoretical contributions of Lucas and Nicolini (2015) and Berentsen, Huber, and Marchesiani (2015). Breaks in the long‐run money demand give rise to regime‐dependent welfare cost estimates. We find that the welfare cost is about 0.1% of annual income over 1976–2013, as compared to 0.8% over 1945–75. Overall, these values are substantially lower than those reported in the literature.

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  • Matteo Mogliani & Giovanni Urga, 2018. "On the Instability of Long‐Run Money Demand and the Welfare Cost of Inflation in the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1645-1660, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:50:y:2018:i:7:p:1645-1660
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12480
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Pierre Perron & Xuewen Yu, 2022. "A two‐step procedure for testing partial parameter stability in cointegrated regression models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 219-237, March.
    3. Serletis, Apostolos & Xu, Libo, 2021. "The welfare cost of inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    4. Curran, Michael & Dressler, Scott J., 2020. "Preferences, inflation, and welfare," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    5. Aleksander Berentsen & Samuel Huber & Alessandro Marchesiani, 2018. "Limited Commitment and the Demand for Money," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(610), pages 1128-1156, May.
    6. Karsten Schweikert, 2020. "Oracle Efficient Estimation of Structural Breaks in Cointegrating Regressions," Papers 2001.07949, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
    7. Karsten Schweikert, 2022. "Oracle Efficient Estimation of Structural Breaks in Cointegrating Regressions," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 83-104, January.
    8. Dai, Wei & Serletis, Apostolos, 2019. "On the Markov switching welfare cost of inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    9. Serletis, Apostolos & Xu, Libo, 2023. "Consumer preferences, the demand for Divisia money, and the welfare costs of inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    10. Ufuk CAN & Zeynep Gizem CAN & Süleyman DEĞİRMEN, 2019. "Paranın Dolaşım Hızının ve Para Talebi Fonksiyonunun Ekonometrik Analizi: Türkiye Örneği," Istanbul Business Research, Istanbul University Business School, vol. 48(2), pages 218-247, November.
    11. Tsutomu Watanabe & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2021. "Japan’s voluntary lockdown: further evidence based on age-specific mobile location data," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 72(3), pages 333-370, July.
    12. Amir Kia, 2024. "Demand for Money in the United States: Stability and Forward-Looking Tests," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, February.

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