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Paranın Dolaşım Hızının ve Para Talebi Fonksiyonunun Ekonometrik Analizi: Türkiye Örneği

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  • Ufuk CAN

    (T.C. Merkez Bankası, Yapısal Ekonomik Araştırmalar Genel Müdürlüğü, Adana, Türkiye)

  • Zeynep Gizem CAN

    (Çukurova Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü, Adana, Türkiye)

  • Süleyman DEĞİRMEN

    (Mersin Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü, Adana, Türkiye)

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye için paranın dolaşım hızının durağanlığını test etmek ve paranın dolaşım hızını etkileyen değişkenleri belirlemektir. 1970-2017 yıllarını kapsayan dönem için veri seti yıllık frekansta oluşturulmakta; paranın dolaşım hızı, reel gelir, mevduat faiz oranı ve reel efektif döviz kuru değişkenler olarak kullanılmaktadır. Geleneksel ve doğrusal olmayan birim kök testleri, varyans oranı testleri ve kesirli bütünleşme testleri paranın dolaşım hızının durağan olmadığı gösterse de 2000’li yıllarda yaşanan ekonomik ve yapısal dönüşümler kırılma olarak alındığında birçok yapısal kırılma içeren birim kök testine göre paranın dolaşım hızının durağan olması dikkat çekmektedir. Ayrıca, doğrusal olmayan gecikmesi dağıtılmış otoregresif model (NARDL) ile mevduat faiz oranlarının kısa dönem asimetrisi ve reel efektif döviz kurunun uzun ve kısa dönem asimetrisi anlamlı bulunmakta, uzun dönemde mevduat faiz oranlarındaki ve reel efektif döviz kurlarındaki pozitif değişimlerin negatif değişimlere göre paranın dolaşım hızı üzerinde daha etkili olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır. Para talebinin gelir esnekliğinin pozitif, faiz oranı esnekliğinin negatif ve döviz kuru esnekliğinin pozitif olduğu belirlenmekte ve analiz sonuçları literatürde yapılan çalışmalarla örtüşmektedir.

Suggested Citation

  • Ufuk CAN & Zeynep Gizem CAN & Süleyman DEĞİRMEN, 2019. "Paranın Dolaşım Hızının ve Para Talebi Fonksiyonunun Ekonometrik Analizi: Türkiye Örneği," Istanbul Business Research, Istanbul University Business School, vol. 48(2), pages 218-247, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ist:ibsibr:v:48:y:2019:i:2:p:218-247
    DOI: 10.26650/ibr.2019.48.0054
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