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Short-run Money Demand

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  • Laurence Ball

Abstract

This paper estimates a long-run demand function for M1, using U.S. data for 1959-1993. The paper interprets deviations from this long-run relation with Goldfeld=s partial adjustment model. A key innovation is the choice of the interest rate in the money demand function. Most previous work uses a short-term market rate, but this paper uses the average return on "near monies" -- close substitutes for M1 such as savings accounts and money market mutual funds. This approach yields a predicted path of M1 velocity that closely matches the data. The volatility of velocity after 1980 is explained by volatility in the returns on near monies.

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  • Laurence Ball, 2002. "Short-run Money Demand," Economics Working Paper Archive 481, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:jhu:papers:481
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2003. "Backward-looking interest-rate rules, interest-rate smoothing, and macroeconomic instability," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1379-1423.
    2. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy and money demand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 40-54.
    3. Daniel Garces-Diaz, 2004. "How Does the Monetary Model of Exchange Rate Determination Look When It Really Works?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 60, Econometric Society.
    4. Sosunov, K., 2013. "Estimation of the Money Demand Function in Russia," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 89-99.
    5. Artur Tarassow, 2017. "Forecasting growth of U.S. aggregate and household-sector M2 after 2000 using economic uncertainty measures," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201702, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
    6. Ingrid Groessl & Artur Tarassow, 2015. "A Microfounded Model of Money Demand Under Uncertainty, and some Empirical Evidence," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201504, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik, revised Jan 2018.
    7. Helmut Herwartz & Jordi Sardà & Bernd Theilen, 2016. "Money demand and the shadow economy: empirical evidence from OECD countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1627-1645, June.
    8. Ashley, Richard & Verbrugge, Randal, 2015. "Persistence Dependence in Empirical Relations: The Velocity of Money," Working Paper 1530, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    9. repec:rfa:aefjnl:v:4:y:2017:i:5:p:9-20 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Duca, John V. & VanHoose, David D., 2004. "Recent developments in understanding the demand for money," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 247-272.
    11. Rostom,Ahmed Mohamed Tawfick, 2016. "Money demand in the Arab Republic of Egypt : a vector equilibrium correction model," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7679, The World Bank.
    12. repec:spr:jecfin:v:41:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s12197-016-9358-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Donald H. Dutkowsky & Barry Z. Cynamon & Barry E. Jones, 2006. "U.S. Narrow Money for the Twenty-First Century," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(1), pages 142-152, January.
    14. Scheiblecker, Marcus, 2013. "Between cointegration and multicointegration: Modelling time series dynamics by cumulative error correction models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 511-517.
    15. Marcus Scheiblecker, 2017. "Modelling Short-run Money Demand for the US," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 4(5), pages 9-20, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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