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Money demand function estimation by nonlinear cointegration

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  • Youngsoo Bae

    (Department of Economics, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA)

  • Robert M. de Jong

    (Department of Economics, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA)

Abstract

Conventionally, the money demand function is estimated using a regression of the logarithm of money demand on either the interest rate or the logarithm of the interest rate. This equation is presumed to be a cointegrating regression. In this paper, we aim to combine the logarithmic specification, which models the liquidity trap better than a linear model, with the assumption that the interest rate itself is an integrated process. The proposed technique is robust to serial correlation in the errors. For the USA, our new technique results in larger coefficient estimates than previous research suggested, and produces superior out-of-sample prediction. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Youngsoo Bae & Robert M. de Jong, 2007. "Money demand function estimation by nonlinear cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 767-793.
  • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:22:y:2007:i:4:p:767-793
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.915
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Alfredo Martín-Oliver, 2018. "Bank Competition with Financing and Savings Substitutes," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 207-241, October.
    2. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-474 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Muhammad Shahbaz & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Shaista Alam & Nicholas Apergis, 2018. "Globalisation, economic growth and energy consumption in the BRICS region: The importance of asymmetries," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(8), pages 985-1009, November.
    4. Rostom,Ahmed Mohamed Tawfick, 2016. "Money demand in the Arab Republic of Egypt : a vector equilibrium correction model," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7679, The World Bank.
    5. Choi, Chi-Young & Hu, Ling & Ogaki, Masao, 2008. "Robust estimation for structural spurious regressions and a Hausman-type cointegration test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 327-351, January.
    6. Miller, Stephen M. & Martins, Luis Filipe & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "A Time-Varying Approach Of The Us Welfare Cost Of Inflation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 775-797, March.
    7. Chan, Nigel & Wang, Qiying, 2015. "Nonlinear regressions with nonstationary time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 182-195.
    8. Tsuruga, Takayuki & Wake, Shota, 2019. "Money-financed fiscal stimulus: The effects of implementation lag," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 132-151.
    9. Mouyad Alsamara & Zouhair Mrabet, 2019. "Asymmetric impacts of foreign exchange rate on the demand for money in Turkey: new evidence from nonlinear ARDL," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 335-356, April.
    10. YABE, Ryota, 2014. "Empirical Likelihood Confidence Intervals for Nonparametric Nonlinear Nonstationary Regression Models," Discussion Papers 2014-20, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    11. Zhishui Hu & Peter C.B. Phillips & Qiying Wang, 2019. "Nonlinear Cointegrating Power Function Regression with Endogeneity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2211, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    12. Deepankar Basu, 2009. "The Paradox of Thrift and Crowding-In of Private Investment in a Simple IS-LM Model," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2009-14, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    13. doğru, bülent, 2013. "Dynamic Analysis of Money Demand Function: Case of Turkey," MPRA Paper 48402, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Gomez-Biscarri, Javier & Hualde, Javier, 2015. "A residual-based ADF test for stationary cointegration in I(2) settings," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(2), pages 280-294.
    15. Kristensen, Dennis & Rahbek, Anders, 2010. "Likelihood-based inference for cointegration with nonlinear error-correction," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 78-94, September.
    16. Chen, Yao & Ward, Felix, 2019. "When do fixed exchange rates work? Evidence from the Gold Standard," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 158-172.
    17. Kim, Chang Sik & Kim, In-Moo, 2012. "Partial parametric estimation for nonstationary nonlinear regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(2), pages 448-457.
    18. Inagaki, Kazuyuki, 2009. "Estimating the interest rate semi-elasticity of the demand for money in low interest rate environments," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 147-154, January.
    19. Karsten Schweikert, 2020. "Oracle Efficient Estimation of Structural Breaks in Cointegrating Regressions," Papers 2001.07949, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    20. Nakashima, Kiyotaka, 2008. "An Extremely Low Interest Rate Policy and the Shape of the Japanese Money Demand Function: A Nonlinear Cointegration Approach," MPRA Paper 70689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Nakashima, Kiyotaka & Saito, Makoto, 2012. "On the comparison of alternative specifications for money demand: The case of extremely low interest rate regimes in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 454-471.
    22. Choudhry, Taufiq & Hassan, Syed S., 2015. "Exchange rate volatility and UK imports from developing countries: The effect of the global financial crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 89-101.
    23. Ward, Felix & Chen, Yao, 2016. "Rigid relations: External adjustment under the Gold Standard (1880-1913)," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145930, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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