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Una exploración reciente a la demanda por dinero en Colombia bajo un enfoque no lineal

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Ordoñez-Callamand

    () (Pontificia Universidad Javeriana)

  • Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia

    () (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • Daniel Parra-Amado

    () (Banco de la República de Colombia)

Abstract

El artículo explora una estimación de una función de demanda por dinero tradicional para la economía colombiana para el período 1984 - 2016. Se utiliza un modelo de cointegración bajo un enfoque no lineal como el propuesto por Saikkonen y Choi, 2004, el cual permitió encontrar dos regímenes extremos para la economía colombiana y con ello caracterizar el problema de inestabilidad de la demanda por dinero. Las estimaciones muestran la presencia de una relación de largo plazo entre los precios, el ingreso, la tasa de interés y la demanda de dinero. Los coeficientes ajustados son significativos y los signos de cada uno de ellos resultó como lo esperado en la teoría económica. En particular, las semi-elasticidades respecto a la tasa de interés se situaron entre -0;005 y -0;983, mientras que las elasticidades ingreso encontradas oscilaron entre 1;967 y 3;006. La evidencia estadística sobre la homogeneidad de grado uno de la demanda por dinero respecto a los precios resulto ambigua. **** This article models the money demand for the Colombian economy between 1984 - 2016. We use a cointegration model under a non-linear framework as the one proposed by Saikkonen y Choi, 2004. Our results suggest two extreme regimes for the money demand in the Colombian economy, and confirm its instability. We found that there is a cointegration long-term relationship between money demand, prices, income and the interest rate. The coefficients were significant and with the sign as expected by economic theory. In particular, interest rate semi-elasticities were estimated between -0;005 and -0;983, while income elasticities were estimated between 1;967 and 3;006. Statistical evidence of homogeneity of degree one of the demand for money with respect to prices was ambiguous.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Ordoñez-Callamand & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia & Daniel Parra-Amado, 2017. "Una exploración reciente a la demanda por dinero en Colombia bajo un enfoque no lineal," Borradores de Economia 1012, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1012
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demanda por dinero; modelos de transición suave (STAR) **** Money demand; Smooth transition models (STAR);

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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