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Money Demand in the euro area, the US and the UK:Assessing the Role of Nonlinearity

This paper estimates money demand equations for the euro area, the US and the UK using three different econometric methodologies: (i) a linear model based on a dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS); (ii) a nonlinear technique based on a quantile regression framework; and (iii) a nonlinear model relying on a smooth-transition regression. The linear model shows that the elasticity of money demand with respect to income is positive and large in magnitude, while the elasticity of money demand with respect to the interest rate is negative and generally small. The quantile regression technique highlights that: (i) the income and the interest rate semi-elasticities are significantly different from the OLS estimates at the tails of the distribution of real money holdings; and (ii) the sensitivity of money demand with respect to inflation tends to be larger when real money holdings are extremely low. Finally, the smooth transition model provides two interesting findings. On the one hand, they capture reasonably well the dynamics of the money demand function. On the other hand, they show that the elasticity of money demand with respect to inflation rate, interest rate and GDP varies not only in accordance with the regime considered, but also across the countries under consideration.

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File URL: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/docs/2012/NIPE_WP_22_2012.pdf
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Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 22/2012.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:22/2012
Contact details of provider: Postal: Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas, Escola de Economia e Gestão, Universidade do Minho, P-4710-057 Braga, Portugal
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  1. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle & Tierney, Heather L. R., 2007. "Measurement Error in Monetary Aggregates: A Markov Switching Factor Approach," MPRA Paper 10150, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Aug 2008.
  2. Salam K. Fayyad, 1986. "A microeconomic system-wide approach to the estimation of the demand for money," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Aug, pages 22-33.
  3. Peter N. Ireland, 2009. "On the Welfare Cost of Inflation and the Recent Behavior of Money Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1040-52, June.
  4. Jawadi, Fredj, 2012. "Introduction To Time-Varying Modeling With Macroeconomic And Financial Data," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S2), pages 167-175, September.
  5. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet, 2010. "How Better Monetary Statistics Could Have Signaled the Financial Crisis," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201005, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2010.
  6. Stephen Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2009. "Assessing the Casual Relationship between Euro-Area Money and Price in Time-Varying Environment," Discussion Papers in Economics 09/17, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  7. Funke, Michael, 2001. "Money demand in Euroland," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 701-713, October.
  8. Fredj Jawadi & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Modelling Money Demand: Further Evidence from an International Comparison," NIPE Working Papers 23/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  9. Granville, Brigitte & Mallick, Sushanta, 2009. "Monetary and financial stability in the euro area: Pro-cyclicality versus trade-off," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 662-674, October.
  10. Roger Koenker & Zhijie Xiao, 2002. "Inference on the Quantile Regression Process," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1583-1612, July.
  11. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Terasvirta, T. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2000. "Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2000-23/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  12. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Teräsvirta, Timo & Wolters, Jürgen, 1995. "Investigating Stability and Linearity of a German M1 Money Demand Function," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 64, Stockholm School of Economics.
  13. Georges Prat & Fredj Jawadi, 2007. "Nonlinear stock prices adjustment in the G7 countries," Working Papers halshs-00172896, HAL.
  14. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521845731 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Teräsvirta, Timo & Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, 1998. "Nonlinear error-correction and the UK demand for broad money, 1878-1993," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 265, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 30 Nov 1998.
  16. K Alec Chrystal & Paul Mizen, 2001. "Other financial corporations: Cinderella or ugly sister of empirical monetary economics?," Bank of England working papers 151, Bank of England.
  17. Stephen Hall & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2012. "Milton Friedman, the Demand for Money and the ECB’s Monetary-Policy Strategy," Discussion Papers in Economics 12/05, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  18. Chrystal, K Alec & Mizen, Paul, 2005. "A Dynamic Model of Money, Credit, and Consumption: A Joint Model for the UK Household Sector," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(1), pages 119-43, February.
  19. Stephen M. Goldfeld, 1973. "The Demand for Money Revisited," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(3), pages 577-646.
  20. Stephen G Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2008. "A Portfolio Balance Approach to Euro-Area Money Demand in a Time-Varying Environment," Discussion Papers in Economics 08/9, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  21. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521608275 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Barnett, William A, 1983. "New Indices of Money Supply and the Flexible Laurent Demand System," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(1), pages 7-23, January.
  23. Roger Koenker & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001. "Quantile Regression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 143-156, Fall.
  24. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Jawadi, Fredj & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012. "Modeling Nonlinear And Heterogeneous Dynamic Links In International Monetary Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S2), pages 232-251, September.
  25. Rafiq, M.S. & Mallick, S.K., 2008. "The effect of monetary policy on output in EMU3: A sign restriction approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1756-1791, December.
  26. Sousa, Ricardo M., 2010. "Housing wealth, financial wealth, money demand and policy rule: Evidence from the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 88-105, March.
  27. Roberto Golinelli & Sergio Pastorello, 2002. "Modelling the demand for M3 in the Euro area," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 371-401.
  28. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
  29. Hall, Stephen G. & Hondroyiannis, George & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2009. "Assessing the causal relationship between euro-area money and prices in a time-varying environment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 760-766, July.
  30. Sushanta Mallick & Mohammed Mohsin, 2010. "On the real effects of inflation in open economies: theory and empirics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 643-673, December.
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