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Are there change-points in the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending?

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Abstract

Building on a narrative approach to identify episodes of fiscal consolidation, data for a group of 17 industrial countries over the period 1978-2009 and both continuous-time and discrete-time duration models, we find evidence suggesting that the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending increases over time, but only for programs that less than six years. Additionally, fiscal consolidations tend to last longer in non-European than in European countries. Our results emphasize that chronic fiscal imbalances might lead to a vicious austerity cycle, while discipline in the behaviour of fiscal authorities is a means of achieving credible and shorter adjustment measures.

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  • Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Are there change-points in the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending?," NIPE Working Papers 18/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  • Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:18/2012
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    1. De Koning, Kees, 2013. "An income gap theory and its effects on unemployment and economic growth," MPRA Paper 46098, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Apr 2013.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Consolidation; Duration Analysis; Weibull Model; Duration Dependence; Change-Points.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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