IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Are there change-points in the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending?

Listed author(s):

Building on a narrative approach to identify episodes of fiscal consolidation, data for a group of 17 industrial countries over the period 1978-2009 and both continuous-time and discrete-time duration models, we find evidence suggesting that the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending increases over time, but only for programs that less than six years. Additionally, fiscal consolidations tend to last longer in non-European than in European countries. Our results emphasize that chronic fiscal imbalances might lead to a vicious austerity cycle, while discipline in the behaviour of fiscal authorities is a means of achieving credible and shorter adjustment measures.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/docs/2012/NIPE_WP_18_2012.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 18/2012.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2012
Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:18/2012
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas, Escola de Economia e Gestão, Universidade do Minho, P-4710-057 Braga, Portugal

Phone: +351-253604510 ext 5532
Fax: +351-253601380
Web page: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/versao_inglesa/index_uk.htm
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2012. "How does fiscal policy react to wealth composition and asset prices?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 874-890.
  2. Sousa, Ricardo M., 2010. "Housing wealth, financial wealth, money demand and policy rule: Evidence from the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 88-105, March.
  3. Castro, Vítor, 2010. "The duration of economic expansions and recessions: More than duration dependence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 347-365, March.
  4. Feldstein, Martin, 1982. "Government deficits and aggregate demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20.
  5. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in Real Time," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(2), pages 440-465, 06.
  6. Jansen, Dennis W. & Li, Qi & Wang, Zijun & Yang, Jian, 2008. "Fiscal policy and asset markets: A semiparametric analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 141-150, November.
  7. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
  8. Roberto G. Gutierrez & Shana Carter & David M. Drukker, 2001. "On boundary-value likelihood-ratio tests," Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, vol. 10(60).
  9. Stephen M. Miller & Frank S. Russek, 2003. "The Relationship Between Large Fiscal Adjustments And Short-Term Output Growth Under Alternative Fiscal Policy Regimes," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(1), pages 41-58, 01.
  10. John J. Heim, 2011. "Do Tax Cut And Spending Deficits Have Different Crowd Out Effects?," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 1104, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
  11. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's all in the Timing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(1), pages 1-50.
  12. Rafiq, M.S. & Mallick, S.K., 2008. "The effect of monetary policy on output in EMU3: A sign restriction approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1756-1791, December.
  13. Zuehlke, Thomas W, 2003. "Business Cycle Duration Dependence Reconsidered," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(4), pages 564-569, October.
  14. Vítor Castro, 2007. "The Causes of Excessive Deficits in the European Union," NIPE Working Papers 13/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  15. Sichel, Daniel E, 1991. "Business Cycle Duration Dependence: A Parametric Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(2), pages 254-260, May.
  16. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-679, June.
  17. Zsolt Darvas & Andrew K. Rose & Gyorgy Szapary, 2005. "Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 261-298 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices," NIPE Working Papers 25/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  19. Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2005. "Fiscal Adjustments and the Short-Term Trade-Off between economic growth and equality," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 172(1), pages 61-92, June.
  20. Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Wolswijk, Guido, 2009. "Government risk premiums in the bond market: EMU and Canada," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 371-384, September.
  21. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
  23. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Sushanta Mallick & Mohammed Mohsin, 2010. "On the real effects of inflation in open economies: theory and empirics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 643-673, December.
  25. António Afonso & João Tovar-Valles, 2011. "Economic Performance and Government Size," Working Papers Department of Economics 2011/21, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  26. Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2012. "How do central banks react to wealth composition and asset prices?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 641-653.
  27. Granville, Brigitte & Mallick, Sushanta, 2009. "Monetary and financial stability in the euro area: Pro-cyclicality versus trade-off," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 662-674, October.
  28. Vitor Castro, 2013. "The duration of business cycle expansions and contractions: are there change-points in duration dependence?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 511-544, April.
  29. António Afonso & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(34), pages 4439-4454, December.
  30. John J. Heim, 2011. "Do Deficits Crowd Out Private Borrowing? Evidence From Flow Of Funds Accounts," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 1102, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
  31. Afonso, António & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2011. "What are the effects of fiscal policy on asset markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1871-1890, July.
  32. Agnello, Luca & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2011. "Booms and busts in housing markets: Determinants and implications," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 171-190, September.
  33. Margit Molnar, 2012. "Fiscal Consolidation: Part 5. What Factors Determine the Success of Consolidation Efforts?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 936, OECD Publishing.
  34. Castro, Vitor, 2011. "The impact of the European Union fiscal rules on economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 313-326, June.
  35. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
  36. Davig Troy, 2007. "Change-Points in U.S. Business Cycle Durations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(2), pages 1-23, May.
  37. Andrea Pescatori & Daniel Leigh & Jaime Guajardo & Pete Devries, 2011. "A New Action-Based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation," IMF Working Papers 11/128, International Monetary Fund.
  38. Abderrezak, Ali, 1998. "On the Duration of Growth Cycles: An International Study," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 343-355.
  39. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Can Fiscal Policy Stimulus Boost Economic Recovery?," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 62(6), pages 1045-1066.
  40. El-Agraa,Ali (ed.), 2007. "The European Union," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521874434, October.
  41. John J. Heim, 2010. "Do Government Deficits Crowd Out Consumer And Investment Spending?," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 1005, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
  42. repec:taf:applec:44:y:2012:i:34:p:4439-4454 is not listed on IDEAS
  43. Vítor, Castro, 2011. "Can central banks' monetary policy be described by a linear (augmented) Taylor rule or by a nonlinear rule?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 228-246, December.
  44. Reyes Maroto Illera & Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2002. "Duration of Fiscal Budgetary Consolidations in the European Union," European Economy Group Working Papers 18, European Economy Group.
  45. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2014. "Wealth, Asset Portfolio, Money Demand And Policy Rule," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(1), pages 95-111, 01.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:18/2012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Maria João Thompson)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.