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Nonlinear error-correction and the UK demand for broad money, 1878-1993

Author

Listed:
  • Teräsvirta, Timo

    () (Dept. of Economic Statistics, Stockholm School of Economics)

  • Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte

    (Dept. of Economic Statistics, Stockholm School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper reconsiders a nonlinear error-correction model of UK broad money demand by Ericsson, Hendry and Prestwich. Their model can be viewed as an approximation to a smooth transition regression (STR) type specification. The corresponding STR model, when estimated, turns out to encompass the previous model. Adopting a somewhat more general modelling approach leads to another STR model. This model variance dominates the other two but does not encompass them. Nevertheless, it fits better than the other models in the eventful 1970s and 1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Teräsvirta, Timo & Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, 1998. "Nonlinear error-correction and the UK demand for broad money, 1878-1993," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 265, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 30 Nov 1998.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:hastef:0265
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
    2. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
    3. Pesaran, M. H. & Weeks, M., 1999. "Non-nested Hypothesis Testing: An Overview," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9918, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Mizon, Grayham E & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1986. "The Encompassing Principle and Its Application to Testing Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 657-678, May.
    5. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. De Santis, Roberto A. & Favero, Carlo A. & Roffia, Barbara, 2013. "Euro area money demand and international portfolio allocation: A contribution to assessing risks to price stability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 377-404.
    2. repec:lan:wpaper:2602 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Jawadi, Fredj & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "Money demand in the euro area, the US and the UK: Assessing the role of nonlinearity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 507-515.
    4. Franz Seitz & Julian von Landesberger, 2014. "Household Money Holdings in the Euro Area: An Explorative Investigation," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(2), pages 83-115, November.
    5. doğru, bülent, 2013. "Dynamic Analysis of Money Demand Function: Case of Turkey," MPRA Paper 48402, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. repec:lan:wpaper:2460 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Theodore Panagiotidis, 2010. "Market efficiency and the Euro: the case of the Athens stock exchange," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 37(3), pages 237-251, July.
    8. Luis Eduardo Arango & Andrés González, 1999. "A Nonlinear Specification of Demand for Narrow Money in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 135, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Timo Teräsvirta, 2909. "Nonlinear models in macroeconometrics," CREATES Research Papers 2017-32, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    10. Tomáš Havránek & Jana Sedlaříková, 2014. "Meta-analýza důchodové elasticity poptávky po penězích
      [A Meta-Analysis of the Income Elasticity of Money Demand]
      ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2014(3), pages 366-382.
    11. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Pei-Fen & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2007. "Testing linearity in a cointegrating STR model for the money demand function: International evidence from G-7 countries," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 76(4), pages 293-302.
    12. Terasvirta, Timo, 2006. "Forecasting economic variables with nonlinear models," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    13. Deborah Gefang, 2012. "Money‐output Causality Revisited – A Bayesian Logistic Smooth Transition VECM Perspective," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(1), pages 131-151, February.
    14. I A Venetis & I Paya & D Peel, 2009. "ESTAR model with multiple fixed points. Testing and Estimation," Working Papers 599093, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    15. Levent KORAP & Metin YILDIRIM, 2012. "Testing the Lucas Critique for the Turkish Money Demand Function," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(318), pages 57-82.
    16. Rosales, Francisco & von-Cramon, Stephan, 2015. "Analysis of Price Transmission using a Nonparametric Error Correction Model with Time-Varying Cointegration," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 230227, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. A Duarte & J L Nicolini-Llosa & I Paya, 2007. "Estimating Argentina''s imports elasticities," Working Papers 583372, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    18. Franz Seitz & Julian von Landesberger, 2012. "Household Money Demand: The Euro Area Case," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 148(III), pages 409-438, September.
    19. repec:lan:wpaper:2379 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:lan:wpaper:2381 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Jui-Chuan (Della) Chang & Dennis W. Jansen, 2005. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Bank Lending and Aggregate Output: Asymmetries from Nonlinearities in the Lending Channel," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 6(1), pages 129-153, May.
    22. Ericsson Neil R., 2016. "Testing for and estimating structural breaks and other nonlinearities in a dynamic monetary sector," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 377-398, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic model; econometric model building; encompassing; parameter constancy; smooth transition regression.;

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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