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Modeling Nonlinear And Heterogeneous Dynamic Links In International Monetary Markets


  • Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi
  • Jawadi, Fredj
  • Nguyen, Duc Khuong


We use daily short-term interbank interest rates of France, the United Kingdom, and the United States to examine the dynamic links of international monetary markets from 2004 to 2009. Results from vector error-correction models and smooth-transition error-correction models show strong evidence of nonlinear and heterogeneous causalities between the three interest rates. We also find that changes in the U.S. interest rate deviations from the long-run equilibrium led those in France and in the United Kingdom by one to two days. Finally, the national interest rate nexus appears to converge in nonlinear fashion toward a steady state because it is subject to structural change beyond a certain rate threshold. Our findings have important implications for the actions of leading central banks (ECB, Bank of England, and U.S. Fed) because the joint behavior of short-term interest rates can be viewed as an indicator of the degree of central banks' policy interdependence.

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  • Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Jawadi, Fredj & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012. "Modeling Nonlinear And Heterogeneous Dynamic Links In International Monetary Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S2), pages 232-251, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:16:y:2012:i:s2:p:232-251_00

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    Cited by:

    1. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2013. "On the short- and long-run efficiency of energy and precious metal markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 832-844.
    2. Arouri, Mohamed & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Jawadi, Fredj & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Financial linkages between US sector credit default swaps markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 223-243.
    3. Jawadi, Fredj & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "Money demand in the euro area, the US and the UK: Assessing the role of nonlinearity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 507-515.

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