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Fiscal Policy Shocks and the Dynamics of Asset Prices: The South African Experience

Author

Listed:
  • Goodness C. Aye

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria)

  • Mehmet Balcilar

    (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Charl Jooste

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria)

  • Stephen M. Miller

    (Department of Economics, University of Nevada, Las Vegas)

  • Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir

    (Department of Economics, Gazi University)

Abstract

This study assesses how fiscal policy affects the dynamics of asset markets, using Bayesian vector autoregressive models. We use sign restrictions to identify government revenue and government spending shocks, while controlling for generic business cycle and monetary policy shocks. In addition to examining the effects of anticipated and unanticipated revenue and spending shocks, we also analyse three types of fiscal policy scenarios: a deficit-financed spending increase, a balanced budget spending increase (financed with higher taxes), and a deficit-financed tax cut (revenue decreases but government spending stays unchanged). Using South African quarterly data from 1966:Q1 to 2011:Q2, we show that a deficit spending shock does not affect house prices, but temporarily exerts a positive effect on stock prices. With a deficit-financed tax cut shock, house prices increase persistently while stock prices increase quickly, but only temporarily. A balanced budget shock permanently decreases house prices and temporarily reduces stock prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Stephen M. Miller & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Shocks and the Dynamics of Asset Prices: The South African Experience," Working Papers 1211, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:nlv:wpaper:1211
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    2. David Su & Xin Li & Oana-Ramona Lobonþ & Yanping Zhao, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and housing returns in Germany: Evidence from a bootstrap rolling window," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 34(1), pages 43-61.
    3. Aye, Goodness C. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Bosch, Adél & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "Housing and the business cycle in South Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 471-491.
    4. Ghassen El Montasser & Rangan Gupta & Jooste Charl & Stephen M. Miller, 2020. "The Time-series Linkages between US Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices," Public Finance Review, , vol. 48(3), pages 303-339, May.
    5. Mustafa Ozan Yıldırım & Özge Filiz Yağcıbaşı, 2019. "The Dynamics Of House Prices And Fiscal Policy Shocks In Turkey," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, vol. 64(220), pages 39-60, January –.
    6. F Chorley & C Liu, 2021. "Does UK social housing affect housing prices and economic growth? An application of the ARDL model," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 26(1), pages 21-43, March.
    7. Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Kanyane Matlou, 2014. "A time-varying approach to analysing fiscal policy and asset prices in South Africa," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 6(1), pages 46-63, April.
    8. Alexander Zimper, 2014. "The minimal confidence levels of Basel capital regulation," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 15(2), pages 129-143, April.
    9. Isabel Ruiz & Carlos Vargas-Silva, 2016. "The impacts of fiscal policy shocks on the US housing market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 777-800, May.
    10. BUI, Duy-Tung & LLORCA, Matthieu & BUI, Thi Mai Hoai, 2018. "Dynamics between stock market movements and fiscal policy: Empirical evidence from emerging Asian economies," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 65-74.
    11. Xiao-lin Li & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Tsangyao Chang, 2016. "The Causal Relationship Between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns in China and India: Evidence from a Bootstrap Rolling Window Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(3), pages 674-689, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian Sign-Restricted VAR; fiscal policy; housing prices; stock prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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