IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Is the relationship between monetary policy and house prices asymmetric in South Africa? Evidence from a Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive mode

Listed author(s):
  • Beatrice D. Simo - Kengne

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Mehmet Balcilar

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University)

  • Rangan Gupta

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Monique Reid

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch)

  • Goodness C. Aye

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

This paper examines asymmetries in the impact of monetary policy on the middle segment of the South African housing market from 1966:M2 to 2011:M12. We use Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MS-VAR) in which parameters change according to the phase of the housing cycle. The results suggest that monetary policy is not neutral as house price growth decreases substantially with a contractionary monetary policy. We find that the impact of monetary policy is larger in bear regime than in bull regime; indicating the role of information asymmetry in reinforcing the financial constraint of economic agents. As expected, monetary policy reaction to a positive house price shock is found to be stronger in the bull regime. This suggests that central banker reacts more in bull regime in order to prevent potential crisis related to the subsequent bust in house prices bubbles which are more prominent in bull markets. These results substantiate important asymmetries in the dynamics of house prices in relation to monetary policy, vindicating the advantages of generating regime dependent impulse response functions.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.ekon.sun.ac.za/wpapers/2012/wp142012/wp-14-2012.pdf
File Function: First version, 2012
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 14/2012.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2012
Handle: RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers166
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Private Bag X1, 7602 Matieland

Phone: 021-8082247
Fax: +27 (0)21-808 2409
Web page: http://www.ekon.sun.ac.za
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window

  1. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing IS the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 13428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Goodhart, Charles & Hofmann, Boris, 2008. "House Prices, Money, Credit and the Macroeconomy," Working Paper Series 0888, European Central Bank.
  3. Thomas F Helbling, 2005. "Housing price bubbles - a tale based on housing price booms and busts," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Real estate indicators and financial stability, volume 21, pages 30-41 Bank for International Settlements.
  4. Shiu-Sheng Chen, 2005. "Does Monetary Policy Have Asymmetric Effects on Stock Returns?," Macroeconomics 0502001, EconWPA, revised 01 Feb 2005.
  5. Musso, Alberto & Neri, Stefano & Stracca, Livio, 2011. "Housing, consumption and monetary policy: How different are the US and the euro area?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 3019-3041, November.
  6. Kasai Ndahiriwe & Rangan Gupta, 2008. "Financial Liberalisation and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy on House Prices in South Africa," Working Papers 200803, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  7. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Alan Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Housing Sector Dynamics in a Large-Scale Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Mode," Working Papers 0919, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
  8. Ruthira Naraidoo & Leroi Raputsoane, 2010. "Zone‐Targeting Monetary Policy Preferences And Financial Market Conditions: A Flexible Non‐Linear Policy Reaction Function Of The Sarb Monetary Policy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(4), pages 400-417, December.
  9. John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, "undated". "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  10. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
  11. Ehrmann, Michael & Ellison, Martin & Valla, Natacha, 2003. "Regime-dependent impulse response functions in a Markov-switching vector autoregression model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 295-299, March.
  12. Massimo Giuliodori, 2004. "Monetary Policy Shocks and the Role of House Prices Across European Countries," DNB Working Papers 015, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  13. Oreste Napolitano, 2006. "Is The Impact Of Ecb Monetary Policy On Emu Stock Market Returns Asymmetric?," Working Papers 3_2006, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
  14. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Alain Kabundi, 2009. "The Effect Of Monetary Policy On Real House Price Growth In South Africa: A Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (Favar) Approach," Working Papers 200905, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  15. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
  16. Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Forecasting House Prices for the Four Census Regions and the Aggregate US Economy: The Role of a Data-Rich Environment," Working Papers 201214, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  17. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Stephen M. Miller & Dylan van Wyk, 2010. "Financial Market Liberalization, Monetary Policy, and Housing Price Dynamics," Working Papers 201009, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  18. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  19. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 359-413.
  20. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta & Manoel Bittencourt, 2012. "THE IMPACT OF HOUSE PRICES ON CONSUMPTION IN SOUTH AFRICA: EVIDENCE FROM PROVINCIAL-LEVEL PANEL VARs," Working Papers 201211, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  21. Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Macroeconomic surprises and stock returns in South Africa," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 266-282, July.
  22. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  23. Christophe Andre & Rangan Gupta & Patrick T. Kanda, 2012. "Do House Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate? Evidence from OECD Countries using an Agnostic Identification Procedure," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 58(1), pages 19-70.
  24. Carlos Vargas-Silva, 2007. "Monetary policy and the U.S. housing market: A VAR analysis imposing sign restrictions," Working Papers 0705, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
  25. Jansen, Dennis W. & Tsai, Chun-Li, 2010. "Monetary policy and stock returns: Financing constraints and asymmetries in bull and bear markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 981-990, December.
  26. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard Peach, 2002. "Monetary policy transmission to residential investment," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 139-158.
  27. Qin Xiao & Randolph Gee Kwang Tan, 2006. "Markov-switching Unit Root Test: A study of the Property Price Bubbles in Hong Kong and Seoul," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 0602, Nanyang Technological University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
  28. Kai Carstensen & Oliver Hülsewig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2009. "Monetary Policy Transmission and House Prices: European Cross Country Evidence," Working Paper / FINESS 7.4, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  29. Chib, Siddhartha, 1996. "Calculating posterior distributions and modal estimates in Markov mixture models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 79-97, November.
  30. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2007. "Review of Monetary Policy in South Africa since 1994," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 16(5), pages 705-744, November.
  31. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
  32. Elliott, Graham, 1999. "Efficient Tests for a Unit Root When the Initial Observation Is Drawn from Its Unconditional Distribution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 767-783, August.
  33. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
  34. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Manoel Bittencourt & Rangan Gupta, 2011. "House Prices and Economic Growth in South Africa: Evidence from Provincial-Level Data," Working Papers 201116, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  35. Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta & Patrick T Kanda, 2010. "Bubbles in South African House Prices and their Impact on Consumption," Working Papers 201017, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  36. Hall, Stephen & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1997. "Switching error-correction models of house prices in the United Kingdom," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-527, October.
  37. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Gaia Garino & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Speculative Bubbles in U.K. House Prices: Some New Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 70(4), pages 777-795, April.
  39. Rangan Gupta, 2010. "The effect of monetary policy on house price inflation," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(6), pages 616-626, November.
  40. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers166. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Melt van Schoor)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.