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Evolution of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the US: the Role of Asset Returns

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  • Beatrice Simo-Kengne

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  • Stephen Miller

    ()

  • Rangan Gupta

    ()

  • Mehmet Balcilar

    ()

Abstract

This paper investigates whether changes in the monetary transmission mechanism as captured by the interest rate respond to variations in asset returns. We distinguish between low-volatility (bull) and high-volatility (bear) markets and employ a TVP-VAR approach with stochastic volatility to assess the evolution of the interest rate in relation to housing and stock returns. We measure the relative importance of housing and stock returns in the movements of the interest rate and their possible feedback effects over both time and horizon and across regimes. Empirical results from annual data on the US spanning the period from 1890 to 2012 indicate that the interest rate responds more strongly to asset returns during low-volatility (bull) regimes. While the bigger interest-rate effect of stock-return shocks occurs prior to the 1970s, the interest rate appears to respond more strongly to housing-return than stock return shocks after the 1970s. Similarly, a higher interest rate exerts a larger effect on both asset categories during low-volatility (bull) markets. Particularly, larger negative responses of housing return to interest-rate shocks occur after the 1980s, corresponding to the low-volatility (bull) regime in the housing market. Conversely, the stock-return effect of interest-rate shocks dominates before the 1980s, where stock-market booms achieved more importance. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Beatrice Simo-Kengne & Stephen Miller & Rangan Gupta & Mehmet Balcilar, 2016. "Evolution of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the US: the Role of Asset Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 226-243, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:52:y:2016:i:3:p:226-243
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-015-9512-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Stephen M. Miller & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "U.S. Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices: The Role of Partisan Conflict," Working papers 2017-10, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    2. repec:ire:issued:v:22:n:01:2019:p:27-59 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta & Constantinos Katrakilidis & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "Time-Varying Role of Macroeconomic Shocks on House Prices in the US and UK: Evidence from Over 150 Years of Data," Working Papers 201765, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. repec:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:10:p:2776-:d:231284 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Petre Caraiani & Adrian Cantemir Călin & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Bubbles in US REITs," Working Papers 201845, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Rangan Gupta & Zhihui Lv & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Changing Dynamics of the U.S. REITs Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(10), pages 1-12, May.
    7. repec:bla:acctfi:v:58:y:2018:i:s1:p:311-342 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Wendy Nyakabawo, 2018. "Time-Varying Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the US Housing Market," Working Papers 201870, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    9. repec:ibn:ijefaa:v:10:y:2018:i:4:p:72-83 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Herwartz, Helmut & Maxand, Simone & Rohloff, Hannes, 2018. "Lean against the wind or float with the storm? Revisiting the monetary policy asset price nexus by means of a novel statistical identification approach," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 354, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy transmission; Housing return; Stock return; TVP-VAR; C32; E52; G10;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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