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Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Stability: The United Kingdom 1796-1999

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  • Michael D. Bordo
  • Michael J. Dueker
  • David C. Wheelock

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact historically of aggregate price shocks on financial stability in the United Kingdom. We construct an annual index of U.K. financial conditions for 1790-1999 and use a dynamic probit model to estimate the effect of aggregate price shocks on the index. We find that price level shocks contributed significantly to financial instability during 1820-1931, and that inflation rate shocks contributed to instability during 1972-99. Both the nature of aggregate price shocks and their impact depend on the existing monetary and financial regime, but price shocks historically have been a source of financial instability.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2001. "Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Stability: The United Kingdom 1796-1999," NBER Working Papers 8583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8583
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    Cited by:

    1. Brown, William Jr. & Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2006. "Volatility in an era of reduced uncertainty: Lessons from Pax Britannica," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 693-707, March.
    2. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-459 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Michael D. Bordo & John Landon-Lane, 2014. "Does Expansionary Monetary Policy Cause Asset Price Booms? Some Historical and Empirical Evidence," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Sofía Bauducco & Lawrence Christiano & Claudio Raddatz (ed.), Macroeconomic and Financial Stability: challenges for Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 19, chapter 3, pages 61-116 Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Campbell, Gareth & Coyle, Christopher & Turner, John D., 2016. "This time is different: Causes and consequences of British banking instability over the long run," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 74-94.
    5. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta & Mehmet Balcilar, 2016. "Evolution of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the US: the Role of Asset Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 226-243, April.
    6. Michael D. Bordo & John Landon-Lane, 2013. "What Explains House Price Booms?: History and Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 19584, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Obregon, Carlos, 2018. "Globalization misguided views," MPRA Paper 85813, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Shen, Chung-Hua & Lin, Kun-Li & Guo, Na, 2016. "Hawk or dove: Switching regression model for the monetary policy reaction function in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 94-111.
    9. Angela Roman & Irina Bilan, 2009. "The monetary policy and the financial stability in the context of globalization," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 56, pages 143-156, November.
    10. Marius Constantin Apostoaie, 2010. "Consideration on the price stability – financial stability relationship in the context of financial globalization," Studies and Scientific Researches. Economics Edition, "Vasile Alecsandri" University of Bacau, Faculty of Economic Sciences, issue 15.
    11. Giandomenico Piluso & Roberto Ricciuti, 2008. "Fiscal Policy and the Banking System in Italy. Have Taxes, Public Spending and Banks been Procyclical in the Long-Run?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2442, CESifo Group Munich.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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