What Explains House Price Booms?: History and Empirical Evidence
In this paper we investigate the relationship between loose monetary policy, low inflation, and easy bank credit with house price booms. Using a panel of 11 OECD countries from 1920 to 2011 we estimate a panel VAR in order to identify shocks that can be interpreted as loose monetary policy shocks, low inflation shocks, bank credit shocks and house price shocks. We show that loose monetary policy played an important role in housing booms along with the other shocks. We show that during boom periods there is a heightened impact of all three "policy" shocks with the bank credit shock playing an important role. However, when we look at individual house price boom episodes the cause of the price boom is not so clear. The evidence suggests that the house price boom that occurred in the US during the 1990s and 2000s was not due to easy bank credit. Loose monetary policy (as well as low inflation) played some role but the residual which may be picking up other factors such as financial innovation and the shadow banking system is the most important shock. This result is robust to many alternative specifications.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Browne, Frank & Cronin, David, 2006.
"Commodity Prices, Money and Inflation,"
Research Technical Papers
16/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002.
"Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
- Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
- Anna J. Schwartz, 2002.
"Asset Price Inflation and Monetary Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
9321, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2001.
"Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Stability: The United Kingdom 1796-1999,"
NBER Working Papers
8583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bordo, Michael D. & Dueker, Michael J. & Wheelock, David C., 2003. "Aggregate price shocks and financial stability: the United Kingdom 1796-1999," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 143-169, April.
- Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2001. "Aggregate price shocks and financial stability: the United Kingdom 1796-1999," Working Papers 2001-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Christian Hott & Terhi Jokipii, 2012. "Housing Bubbles and Interest Rates," Working Papers 2012-07, Swiss National Bank.
- Rudiger Ahrend & Boris Cournède & Robert W.R. Price, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Market Excesses and Financial Turmoil," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 597, OECD Publishing.
- Orazio P. Attanasio & James Banks & Costas Meghir & Guglielmo Weber, 1995.
"Humps and Bumps in Lifetime Consumption,"
NBER Working Papers
5350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2008. "Monetary policy, asset prices and macroeconomic conditions : a panel-VAR study," Working Paper Research 149, National Bank of Belgium.
- Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995.
"Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
- Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series: implications for business cycle research," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Gerlach, Stefan & Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin, 2008.
"Financial structure and the impact of monetary policy on asset prices,"
CFS Working Paper Series
2008/30, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2008. "Financial Structure and the Impact of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," Working Papers 2008-16, Swiss National Bank.
- Michael D. Bordo & David C. Wheelock, 2004.
"Monetary policy and asset prices: a look back at past U.S. stock market booms,"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 19-44.
- Michael D. Bordo & David C. Wheelock, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: A Look Back at Past U.S. Stock Market Booms," NBER Working Papers 10704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Arthur M. Okun, 1975. "Inflation: Its Mechanics and Welfare Costs," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(2), pages 351-402.
- Adrian R. Pagan & Kirill A. Sossounov, 2003. "A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 23-46.
- Alessio Anzuini & Marco J. Lombardi & Patrizio Pagano, 2012.
"The impact of monetary policy shocks on commodity prices,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
851, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- A. Anzuini & M. J. Lombardi & P. Pagano, 2013. "The Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Commodity Prices," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 125-150, September.
- Anzuini, Alessio & Lombardi, Marco J. & Pagano, Patrizio, 2010. "The impact of monetary policy shocks on commodity prices," Working Paper Series 1232, European Central Bank.
- Sherry A. Glied & Ashwin Prabhu & Norman H. Edelman, 2008. "The Cost of Primary Care Doctors," NBER Working Papers 14568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frappa, Sébastien & Mésonnier, Jean-Stéphane, 2010. "The housing price boom of the late 1990s: Did inflation targeting matter?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 243-254, December.
- Rappoport, Peter & White, Eugene N, 1994. "Was the Crash of 1929 Expected?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 271-81, March.
- François R. Velde, 2007. "John Law's System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 276-279, May.
- Eugene N. White, 2013.
"Lessons from the Great American Real Estate Boom and Bust of the 1920s,"
in: Housing and Mortgage Markets in Historical Perspective, pages 115-158
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eugene N. White, 2009. "Lessons from the Great American Real Estate Boom and Bust of the 1920s," NBER Working Papers 15573, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19584. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.