IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Does expansionary monetary policy cause asset price booms? some historical and empirical evidence

Listed author(s):
  • Michael D. Bordo
  • John Landon-Lane

This paper develops a method to identify asset price booms, focused on housing, stock markets and commodities, with data from 18 OECD countries from 1920 onwards. It checks whether boom episodes can be linked to various measures of monetary policy, namely deviations from the Taylor rule and a money growth rate. The results show that a "lax" monetary policy—in which the interest rate is below the target or the growth rate of the money base exceeds the target rate—does have a positive impact on asset prices, and that this correspondence is exacerbated in periods of sharp price increases, and then suffer a significant correction, this result being robust. Another finding is that low inflation and, to a lesser extent, "easy" credit, are also associated with asset price increases".

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://si2.bcentral.cl/public/pdf/revista-economia/2013/ago/recv16n2ago2013pp4-52.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by Central Bank of Chile in its journal Economía Chilena.

Volume (Year): 16 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
Pages: 04-52

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchec:v:16:y:2013:i:2:p:04-52
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Casilla No967, Santiago

Phone: (562) 670 2000
Fax: (562) 698 4847
Web page: http://www.bcentral.cl/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. M.F. Bryan & S.G. Cecchetti & R. O'Sullivan, 2001. "Asset Prices in the Measurement of Inflation," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 62, Netherlands Central Bank.
  2. Alan S. Blinder & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2012. "The Supply-Shock Explanation of the Great Stagflation Revisited," NBER Chapters,in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 119-175 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2008. "Financial Structure and the Impact of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," Working Papers 2008-16, Swiss National Bank.
  4. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
  5. Bordo, Michael D. & Dueker, Michael J. & Wheelock, David C., 2003. "Aggregate price shocks and financial stability: the United Kingdom 1796-1999," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 143-169, April.
  6. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters,in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 291-333 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Takatoshi Ito & Tokuo Iwaisako, 1996. "Explaining Asset Bubbles in Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 14(1), pages 143-193, July.
  8. Alchian, Armen A & Klein, Benjamin, 1973. "On a Correct Measure of Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 173-191, Part I Fe.
  9. Browne, Frank & Cronin, David, 2010. "Commodity prices, money and inflation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(4), pages 331-345, July.
  10. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2002. "Aggregate Price Shocks and Financial Instability: A Historical Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 521-538, October.
  11. Frank R. Lichtenberg, 2007. "Benefits and costs of newer drugs: an update," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4-5), pages 485-490.
  12. A. Anzuini & M. J. Lombardi & P. Pagano, 2013. "The Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Commodity Prices," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 125-150, September.
  13. Stephen G Cecchetti, 2003. "What the FOMC Says and Does When the Stock Market Booms," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Anthony Richards & Tim Robinson (ed.), Asset Prices and Monetary Policy Reserve Bank of Australia.
  14. Anna Schwartz, 2003. "Asset price inflation and monetary policy," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 31(1), pages 1-14, March.
  15. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "When credit bites back: leverage, business cycles, and crises," Working Paper Series 2011-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  16. Rudiger Ahrend & Boris Cournède & Robert W. R. Price, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Market Excesses and Financial Turmoil," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 597, OECD Publishing.
  17. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2008. "Monetary policy, asset prices and macroeconomic conditions : a panel-VAR study," Working Paper Research 149, National Bank of Belgium.
  18. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, November.
  19. Bordo, Michael David, 1980. "The Effects of Monetary Change on Relative Commodity Prices and the Role of Long-Term Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1088-1109, December.
  20. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
  21. Eugene N. White, 2014. "Lessons from the Great American Real Estate Boom and Bust of the 1920s," NBER Chapters,in: Housing and Mortgage Markets in Historical Perspective, pages 115-158 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
  23. David Laidler, 2003. "The price level, relative prices and economic stability: aspects of the interwar debate," BIS Working Papers 136, Bank for International Settlements.
  24. anonymous, 2008. "Monetary policy report to the Congress," Web Site 34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  25. anonymous, 2008. "Monetary policy report to the Congress," Web Site 16, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  26. Arthur M. Okun, 1975. "Inflation: Its Mechanics and Welfare Costs," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(2), pages 351-402.
  27. Sherry A. Glied & Ashwin Prabhu & Norman H. Edelman, 2008. "The Cost of Primary Care Doctors," NBER Working Papers 14568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  29. François R. Velde, 2007. "John Law's System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 276-279, May.
  30. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 137-198 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
  32. Michael D. Bordo & David C. Wheelock, 2004. "Monetary policy and asset prices: a look back at past U.S. stock market booms," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 19-44.
  33. Frappa, Sébastien & Mésonnier, Jean-Stéphane, 2010. "The housing price boom of the late 1990s: Did inflation targeting matter?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 243-254, December.
  34. Christian Hott & Terhi Jokipii, 2012. "Housing Bubbles and Interest Rates," Working Papers 2012-07, Swiss National Bank.
  35. Adrian R. Pagan & Kirill A. Sossounov, 2003. "A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 23-46.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchec:v:16:y:2013:i:2:p:04-52. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudio Sepulveda)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.