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The Fed’s TRAP

  • Alexander Erler

    ()

  • Christian Drescher

    ()

  • Damir Križanac

    ()

The article examines if US monetary policy implicitly responds to asset price booms. Using real-time data and a GMM framework we estimate a Taylor-type rule with an asset variable that captures phases of booms and busts in the real estate market. We identify quasi real-time booms and busts using an asset cycle dating procedure. Our analysis yields two main findings. Firstly, the Fed does implicitly respond to asset price booms in the real estate market. Secondly, these responses are typically pro-cyclic and their intensity changes over time. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2013

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s12197-011-9173-z
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 37 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 136-149

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Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:37:y:2013:i:1:p:136-149
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  1. Claudio Borio, 2005. "Monetary and Financial Stability: So Close and Yet So Far?," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 192(1), pages 84-101, April.
  2. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  5. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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  11. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  14. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, December.
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  16. Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Julien Matheron, 2005. "Interactions between business cycles, financial cycles and monetary policy: stylised facts," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 273-98 Bank for International Settlements.
  17. Nouriel Roubini, 2006. "Why Central Banks Should Burst Bubbles," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 87-107, 05.
  18. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
  19. Peter N. Ireland, 2006. "Changes in the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 12492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Leonardo Gambacorta, 2009. "Monetary policy and the risk-taking channel," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
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