IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/18604.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Taylor-Regel und Subprime-Krise - Eine empirische Analyse der US-amerikanischen Geldpolitik
[Taylor Rule and the Subprime Crisis - An Empirical Analysis of the US Monetary Policy]

Author

Listed:
  • Erler, Alexander
  • Krizanac, Damir

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of the U.S. monetary policy on the Subprime mortgage crisis using a modified taylor rule. The main finding is that during the pre-crisis period the short term rate deviated significantly from the estimated taylor rate. This deviation may have been a cause of the ongoing financial crisis. However, the evidence also suggests that other factors were certainly at play.

Suggested Citation

  • Erler, Alexander & Krizanac, Damir, 2009. "Taylor-Regel und Subprime-Krise - Eine empirische Analyse der US-amerikanischen Geldpolitik
    [Taylor Rule and the Subprime Crisis - An Empirical Analysis of the US Monetary Policy]
    ," MPRA Paper 18604, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18604
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18604/1/MPRA_paper_18604.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19045/3/MPRA_paper_19045.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David E. Runkle, 1998. "Revisionist history: how data revisions distort economic policy research," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 3-12.
    2. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
    3. John B. Taylor, 2007. "Housing and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 463-476.
    4. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    5. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2006. "Euroland: konjunkturelle Expansion erreicht Höhepunkt," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3892, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    6. Marvin Goodfriend, 1998. "Using the term structure of interest rates for monetary policy," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 13-30.
    7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Tao Wu, 2008. "Accounting for the bond-yield conundrum," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 3(feb).
    9. Sack, Brian & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 205-228.
    10. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    12. Jens Richard Clausen & Carsten-Patrick Meier, 2005. "Did the Bundesbank Follow a Taylor Rule? An Analysis Based on Real-Time Data," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 141(II), pages 213-246, June.
    13. Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute, 2006. "Die Lage der Weltwirtschaft und der deutschen Wirtschaft im Frühjahr 2006," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(08), pages 03-60, April.
    14. S. Illeris & G. Akehurst, 2001. "Introduction," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-4, January.
    15. Rudiger Ahrend & Boris Cournède & Robert W. R. Price, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Market Excesses and Financial Turmoil," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 597, OECD Publishing.
    16. William Poole, 2007. "Understanding the Fed," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 3-14.
    17. Gerlach, Stefan & Schnabel, Gert, 2000. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 165-171, May.
    18. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    19. John B. Taylor, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong," NBER Working Papers 14631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2003. "Interest rate reaction functions and the Taylor rule in the euro area," Working Paper Series 258, European Central Bank.
    21. Corporate author, 2006. "Die Lage der Weltwirtschaft und der deutschen Wirtschaft im Frühjahr 2006," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 73(18), pages 225-286.
    22. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Geldpolitik; Taylor-Regel; Subprime-Krise; Fed;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18604. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.