IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Estimating Monetary Policy Reaction Functions Using Quantile Regressions

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Wolters, Maik Hendrik

Abstract

Monetary policy rule parameters are usually estimated at the mean of the interest rate distribution conditional on inflation and an output gap. This is an incomplete description of monetary policy reactions when the parameters are not uniform over the conditional distribution of the interest rate. I use quantile regressions to estimate parameters over the whole conditional distribution of the Federal Funds Rate. Inverse quantile regressions are applied to deal with endogeneity. Realtime data of inflation forecasts and the output gap are used. I find significant and systematic variations of parameters over the conditional distribution of the interest rate.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/23857/2/MPRA_paper_23857.pdf
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 23857.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 13 Jul 2010
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:23857
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany

Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2459
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-992459
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de

More information through EDIRC

Keywords: monetary policy rules; IV quantile regression; real-time data;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
  • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
  • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1982. "Two Stage Least Absolute Deviations Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 689-711, May.
  2. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Commitment with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1877-1905, October.
  3. Kato, Ryo & Nishiyama, Shin-Ichi, 2005. "Optimal monetary policy when interest rates are bounded at zero," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 97-133, January.
  4. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Efficient Monetary Policy Design near Price Stability," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 327-365, December.
  5. Florio, Anna, 2006. "Asymmetric interest rate smoothing: The Fed approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 190-195, November.
  6. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
  7. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
  8. John B. Taylor, 2007. "Housing and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 463-476.
  9. Thanaset Chevapatrakul & Tae-Hwan Kim & Paul Mizen, 2009. "The Taylor Principle and Monetary Policy Approaching a Zero Bound on Nominal Rates: Quantile Regression Results for the United States and Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(8), pages 1705-1723, December.
  10. Sugo, Tomohiro & Teranishi, Yuki, 2005. "The optimal monetary policy rule under the non-negativity constraint on nominal interest rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 95-100, October.
  11. Fitzenberger, Bernd, 1998. "The moving blocks bootstrap and robust inference for linear least squares and quantile regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 235-287, February.
  12. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
  13. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2004. "Optimal monetary policy under commitment with a zero bound on nominal interest rates," Working Paper Series 377, European Central Bank.
  14. Athanasios Orphanides & Volker W. Wieland, 2008. "Economic projections and rules of thumb for monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 307-324.
  15. Helle Bunzel & Walter Enders, 2010. "The Taylor Rule and "Opportunistic" Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(5), pages 931-949, 08.
  16. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
  17. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2003. "Taylor rules, omitted variables, and interest rate smoothing in the US," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 55-59, October.
  18. Qu, Zhongjun, 2008. "Testing for structural change in regression quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 170-184, September.
  19. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 151-175, April.
  20. Dolado, Juan J. & Maria-Dolores, Ramon & Naveira, Manuel, 2005. "Are monetary-policy reaction functions asymmetric?: The role of nonlinearity in the Phillips curve," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 485-503, February.
  21. Laurence H. Meyer & Eric T. Swanson & Volker W. Wieland, 2001. "NAIRU Uncertainty and Nonlinear Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 226-231, May.
  22. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
  23. English William B. & Nelson William R. & Sack Brian P., 2003. "Interpreting the Significance of the Lagged Interest Rate in Estimated Monetary Policy Rules," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-18, April.
  24. Oka, Tatsushi & Qu, Zhongjun, 2011. "Estimating structural changes in regression quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 248-267, June.
  25. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
  26. William Poole, 2007. "Understanding the Fed," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 3-14.
  27. Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen, 2005. "An IV Model of Quantile Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(1), pages 245-261, 01.
  28. Gerlach-Kristen Petra, 2004. "Interest-Rate Smoothing: Monetary Policy Inertia or Unobserved Variables?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-19, March.
  29. Powell, James L, 1983. "The Asymptotic Normality of Two-Stage Least Absolute Deviations Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1569-1575, September.
  30. Lee, Sokbae, 2007. "Endogeneity in quantile regression models: A control function approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1131-1158, December.
  31. Cukierman Alex & Muscatelli Anton, 2008. "Nonlinear Taylor Rules and Asymmetric Preferences in Central Banking: Evidence from the United Kingdom and the United States," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-31, February.
  32. Eric Schaling, 1999. "The non-linear Phillips curve and inflation forecast targeting," Bank of England working papers 98, Bank of England.
  33. Pau Rabanal, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules and the U.S. Business Cycle; Evidence and Implications," IMF Working Papers 04/164, International Monetary Fund.
  34. repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2010:x:4 is not listed on IDEAS
  35. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  36. Surico, Paolo, 2007. "The Fed's monetary policy rule and U.S. inflation: The case of asymmetric preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 305-324, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

as
in new window


Cited by:

  1. Schultefrankenfeld Guido, 2013. "Forecast uncertainty and the Bank of England’s interest rate decisions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-20, February.
  2. Apergis, Nicholas & Christou, Christina, 2015. "The behaviour of the bank lending channel when interest rates approach the zero lower bound: Evidence from quantile regressions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 296-307.
  3. Tae-Hwan Kim & Christophe Muller, 2017. "A Robust Test of Exogeneity Based on Quantile Regressions," AMSE Working Papers 1716, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France.
  4. Ravn, Søren Hove, 2014. "Asymmetric monetary policy towards the stock market: A DSGE approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 24-41.
  5. Luís Francisco Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, "undated". "Analyzing the Taylor Rule with Wavelet Lenses," NIPE Working Papers 18/2014, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  6. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Tillmann, Peter, 2014. "Inflation targeting, credibility, and non-linear Taylor rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 30-45.
  7. Tae-Hwan Kim & Christophe Muller, 2013. "A Test for Endogeneity in Conditional Quantiles," Working Papers halshs-00854527, HAL.
  8. Shen, Chung-Hua & Lin, Kun-Li & Guo, Na, 2016. "Hawk or dove: Switching regression model for the monetary policy reaction function in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 94-111.
  9. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2016. "Estimating the Taylor Rule in the Time-Frequency Domain," CEF.UP Working Papers 1404, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  10. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2014. "Are Fiscal Multipliers Regime-Dependent? A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 139-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  11. Kiesel, Konstantin & Wolters, Maik H., 2014. "Estimating monetary policy rules when the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates is approached," Kiel Working Papers 1898, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  12. Gabriela Bezerra De Medeiros & Marcelo Savino Portugal & Edilean Kleber Da Silva Bejarano Aragon, 2016. "Endogeneity And Nonlinearities In Central Bank Of Brazil’S Reaction Functions: An Inverse Quantile Regression Approach," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 061, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  13. Christina Christou & Ruthira Naraidoo & Rangan Gupta & Won Joong Kim, 2017. "Monetary Policy Reaction Functions of the TICKs: A Quantile Regression Approach," Working Papers 201738, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  14. William Miles & Sam Schreyer, 2012. "Is monetary policy non-linear in Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand? A quantile regression analysis," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 26(2), pages 155-166, November.
  15. Jau-er Chen & Masanori Kashiwagi, 2017. "The Japanese Taylor rule estimated using censored quantile regressions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 357-371, February.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Access and download statistics

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:23857. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.