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The Taylor Principle and Monetary Policy Approaching a Zero Bound on Nominal Rates: Quantile Regression Results for the United States and Japan

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  • THANASET CHEVAPATRAKUL
  • TAE-HWAN KIM
  • PAUL MIZEN

Abstract

This paper offers a new approach that estimates the response of interest rates to inflation and the output gap at various points (quantiles) on the conditional distribution of interest rates. This offers an improvement on empirical estimates conducted only at the mean and also allows us to test the propositions that policy shows greater aggression to inflation in the reaction function in terms of a greater response coefficient as interest rates reach low levels, and increasing aggression as the lower bound is approached. We find support for the Taylor principle, a more aggressive response to inflation than under a Taylor rule, but no detectable evidence of increasing aggression as the zero lower bound is approached in the US and Japan. Copyright (c) 2009 The Ohio State University.

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  • Thanaset Chevapatrakul & Tae-Hwan Kim & Paul Mizen, 2009. "The Taylor Principle and Monetary Policy Approaching a Zero Bound on Nominal Rates: Quantile Regression Results for the United States and Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(8), pages 1705-1723, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:41:y:2009:i:8:p:1705-1723
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    Cited by:

    1. Chevapatrakul, Thanaset & Kim, Tae-Hwan & Mizen, Paul, 2012. "Monetary information and monetary policy decisions: Evidence from the euroarea and the UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 326-341.
    2. Schultefrankenfeld Guido, 2013. "Forecast uncertainty and the Bank of England’s interest rate decisions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, pages 1-20.
    3. Levine, Paul & McAdam, Peter & Pearlman, Joseph, 2012. "Probability models and robust policy rules," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 246-262.
    4. Apergis, Nicholas & Christou, Christina, 2015. "The behaviour of the bank lending channel when interest rates approach the zero lower bound: Evidence from quantile regressions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 296-307.
    5. Tae-Hwan Kim & Christophe Muller, 2017. "A Robust Test of Exogeneity Based on Quantile Regressions," AMSE Working Papers 1716, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France.
    6. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2015. "The Transmission Mechanism In Good And Bad Times," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1237-1260, November.
    7. Tae-Hwan Kim & Christophe Muller, 2012. "Bias Transmission and Variance Reduction in Two-Stage Quantile Regression," Working Papers halshs-00793372, HAL.
    8. Kiesel, Konstantin & Wolters, Maik H., 2014. "Estimating monetary policy rules when the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates is approached," Kiel Working Papers 1898, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    9. Pavel Gertler & Roman Horvath, 2017. "Market Reading of Central Bankers Words. A High-Frequency Evidence," Working and Discussion Papers WP 2/2017, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    10. Tae-Hwan Kim & Christophe Muller, 2013. "A Test for Endogeneity in Conditional Quantiles," AMSE Working Papers 1342, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France, revised Aug 2013.
    11. Christophe Muller, 2017. "Heterogeneity and Non-Constant Effect in Two-Stage Quantile Regression," Working Papers halshs-01157552, HAL.
    12. Wolters, Maik H., 2012. "Estimating monetary policy reaction functions using quantile regressions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 342-361.
    13. William Miles & Samuel Schreyer, 2014. "Is monetary policy non-linear in Latin America? a quantile regression approach to Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 48(2), pages 169-183, April-Jun.
    14. repec:spr:empeco:v:53:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1195-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Tae-Hwan Kim & Christophe Muller, 2015. "A Particular Form of Non-Constant Effect in Two-Stage Quantile Regression," Working papers 2015rwp-82, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    16. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Tillmann, Peter, 2014. "Inflation targeting, credibility, and non-linear Taylor rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 30-45.
    17. Gabriela Bezerra De Medeiros & Marcelo Savino Portugal & Edilean Kleber Da Silva Bejarano Aragon, 2016. "Endogeneity And Nonlinearities In Central Bank Of Brazil’S Reaction Functions: An Inverse Quantile Regression Approach," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 061, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    18. Christina Christou & Ruthira Naraidoo & Rangan Gupta & Won Joong Kim, 2017. "Monetary Policy Reaction Functions of the TICKs: A Quantile Regression Approach," Working Papers 201738, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    19. Hyeong Ho Moon & Tae-Hwan Kim & Seongho Nah, 2012. "On measuring the nonlinear effect of interest rates on inflation and output," Working papers 2013rwp-53, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    20. Charles Evans & Jonas Fisher & Francois Gourio & Spencer Krane, 2015. "Risk Management for Monetary Policy Near the Zero Lower Bound," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(1 (Spring), pages 141-219.
    21. William Miles & Sam Schreyer, 2012. "Is monetary policy non-linear in Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand? A quantile regression analysis," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 26(2), pages 155-166, November.
    22. Thanaset Chevapatrakul & Juan Paez-Farrell, 2014. "Monetary Policy Reaction Functions in Small Open Economies: a Quantile Regression Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(2), pages 237-256, March.
    23. Jau-er Chen & Masanori Kashiwagi, 2017. "The Japanese Taylor rule estimated using censored quantile regressions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 357-371, February.

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