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The Optimal Long-Run Inflation Rate for the U.S. Economy

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  • Roberto M. Billi

    (FRB Kansas City)

Abstract

This paper characterizes the optimal long-run rate of inflation, consistent with an occasionally binding zero lower bound on nominal interest rates, in a stochastic New Keynesian sticky-price model calibrated to the U.S. economy. This may serve to inform discussions on the design of an (implicit) long-run inflation range or point target for the Federal Reserve System. It is shown that both demand and supply shocks, leading to an occasionally binding lower bound on nominal rates, determine a positive long-run rate of inflation to be optimal. Moreover, by applying the robust control approach envisaged by Hansen and Sargent, it is investigated if imperfect information and model uncertainty are a significant further determinant of a positive long-run inflation rate

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto M. Billi, 2006. "The Optimal Long-Run Inflation Rate for the U.S. Economy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 72, Society for Computational Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:72
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    Cited by:

    1. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2011. "The implications of inflation in an estimated new Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 947-962, June.
    2. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Johannes Wieland, 2012. "The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise Their Inflation Targets in Light of the Zero Lower Bound?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(4), pages 1371-1406.
    3. Iiboshi, Hirokuni, 2016. "Monetary policy regime shifts under the zero lower bound: An application of a stochastic rational expectations equilibrium to a Markov switching DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 186-205.
    4. Weber, Henning, 2011. "Optimal inflation and firms' productivity dynamics," Kiel Working Papers 1685, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Roberto M. Billi, 2020. "Output Gaps and Robust Monetary Policy Rules," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(2), pages 125-152, March.
    6. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste, 2014. "The Growth-Inflation Nexus for the US over 1801-2013: A Semiparametric Approach," Working Papers 15-17, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    7. Bilbiie, Florin O. & Fujiwara, Ippei & Ghironi, Fabio, 2014. "Optimal monetary policy with endogenous entry and product variety," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-20.
    8. Billi, Roberto M., 2018. "Price level targeting and risk management," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 163-173.
    9. Mr. Vadim Khramov & Mr. John Ridings Lee, 2013. "The Economic Performance Index (EPI): an Intuitive Indicator for Assessing a Country's Economic Performance Dynamics in an Historical Perspective," IMF Working Papers 2013/214, International Monetary Fund.
    10. S. Boragan Aruoba & Frank Schorfheide, 2011. "Sticky Prices versus Monetary Frictions: An Estimation of Policy Trade-Offs," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 60-90, January.
    11. Sebastian Schmidt, 2013. "Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(7), pages 1335-1350, October.
    12. Roberto M. Billi & George A. Kahn, 2008. "What is the optimal inflation rate?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 93(Q II), pages 5-28.
    13. Weber, Henning, 2013. "Learning By Doing in New Firms and the Optimal Rate of Inflation," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79761, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Guido Ascari & Argia M. Sbordone, 2014. "The Macroeconomics of Trend Inflation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 679-739, September.
    15. Pavasuthipaisit, Robert, 2009. "Optimal exchange-rate policy in a low interest rate environment," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 264-282, September.
    16. Stefano Eusepi & Bart Hobijn & Andrea Tambalotti, 2011. "CONDI: A Cost-of-Nominal-Distortions Index," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 53-91, July.
    17. Weber, Henning, 2012. "The optimal inflation rate and firm-level productivity growth," Kiel Working Papers 1773, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Bennett T. McCallum, 2011. "Should central banks raise their inflation targets? Some relevant issues," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 97(2Q), pages 111-131.
    19. Weber, Henning, 2015. "Innovation and the Optimal Rate of Inflation," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113087, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Alstadheim, Ragna, 2016. "The zero lower bound on the interest rate and a Neoclassical Phillips curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 116-130.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    nonlinear monetary policy; imperfect information; policy design; zero lower bound; inflation inertia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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