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Risk Premium Shocks and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates

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  • Robert Amano
  • Malik Shukayev

Abstract

There appears to be a disconnect between the importance of the zero bound on nominal interest rates in the real-world and predictions from quantitative DSGE models. Recent economic events have reinforced the relevance of the zero bound for monetary policy whereas quantitative models suggest that the zero bound does not constrain (optimal) monetary policy. This paper attempts to shed some light on this disconnect by studying a broader range of shocks within a standard DSGE model. Without denying the possibility of other factors, we find that risk premium shocks are key to building quantitative models where the zero bound is relevant for monetary policy design. The risk premium mechanism operates by increasing the spread between the rates of return on private capital and risk-free government bonds. Other common shocks, such as aggregate productivity, investment-specific productivity, government spending and money demand shocks, are unable to push nominal bond rates close to zero as the same risk premium spread mechanism is not at play.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Amano & Malik Shukayev, 2009. "Risk Premium Shocks and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Staff Working Papers 09-27, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:09-27
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    Cited by:

    1. Sami Alpanda & Gino Cateau & Cesaire Meh, 2014. "A policy model to analyze macroprudential regulations and monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 461, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Gregor Bäurle & Daniel Kaufmann, 2014. "Exchange rate and price dynamics in a small open economy - the role of the zero lower bound and monetary policy regimes," Working Papers 2014-10, Swiss National Bank.
    3. Marc Carreras & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Johannes Wieland, 2016. "Infrequent but Long-Lived Zero-Bound Episodes and the Optimal Rate of Inflation," Working Papers id:11216, eSocialSciences.
    4. Alice, Albonico & Alessia, Paccagnini & Patrizio, Tirelli, 2016. "PIIGS in the Euro Area. An Empirical DSGE Model," Working Papers 331, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 11 Mar 2016.
    5. Mayer, Eric & Rüth, Sebastian & Scharler, Johann, 2016. "Total factor productivity and the propagation of shocks: Empirical evidence and implications for the business cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 335-346.
    6. Kamber, Günes & Smith, Christie & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2015. "Financial frictions and the role of investment-specific technology shocks in the business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 571-582.
    7. repec:wly:jmoncb:v:49:y:2017:i:4:p:695-732 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Gunn, Christopher M. & Johri, Alok, 2013. "An expectations-driven interpretation of the “Great Recession”," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 391-407.
    9. Julio Carrillo & Celine Poilly, 2013. "How do financial frictions affect the spending multiplier during a liquidity trap?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(2), pages 296-311, April.
    10. Merola, Rossana, 2010. "Financial frictions and the zero lower bound on interest rates: a DSGE analysis," MPRA Paper 29365, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Rhys R. Mendes, 2015. "The Optimal Level of the Inflation Target: A Selective Review of the Literature and Outstanding Issues," Discussion Papers 15-8, Bank of Canada.
    12. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2017. "Why Some Times Are Different: Macroeconomic Policy and the Aftermath of Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 23931, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Kaufmann, Daniel & Bäurle, Gregor, 2013. "Exchange Rate and Price Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79872, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. William John Tayler & Roy Zilberman, 2017. "Taxation, Credit Spreads and Liquidity Traps," Working Papers 173174116, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    15. Ngo, Phuong V., 2014. "Optimal discretionary monetary policy in a micro-founded model with a zero lower bound on nominal interest rate," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 44-65.
    16. Dib, Ali & Mendicino, Caterina & Zhang, Yahong, 2013. "Price-level targeting rules and financial shocks: The case of Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 941-953.
    17. Carrillo Julio A. & Poilly Céline, 2010. "Investigating the Zero Lower Bound on the Nominal Interest Rate under Financial Instability," Research Memorandum 019, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    18. Alice, Albonico & Roberta, Cardani & Patrizio, Tirelli, 2017. "Debunking the Myth of Southern Profligacy. A DSGE Analysis of Business Cycles in the EMU’s Big Four," Working Papers 373, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 05 Nov 2017.
    19. Sebastian Schmidt, 2017. "Fiscal Activism and the Zero Nominal Interest Rate Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 695-732, June.
    20. repec:bla:reviec:v:25:y:2017:i:5:p:1046-1077 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Christopher M. Gunn & Alok Johri, 2012. "News, Credit Spreads and Default Costs: An expectations-driven interpretation of the recent boom-bust cycle in the U.S," Department of Economics Working Papers 2012-04, McMaster University.
    22. Charles Olivier Mao Takongmo, 2017. "Government-spending multipliers and the zero lower bound in an open economy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 1046-1077, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy framework;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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