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Financial shocks and the US business cycle

  • Nolan, Charles
  • Thoenissen, Christoph

Employing the financial accelerator (FA) model of Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1999) enhanced to include a shock to the FA mechanism, we construct and study shocks to the efficiency of the financial sector in post-war US business cycles. We find that financial shocks are very tightly linked with the onset of recessions, more so than TFP or monetary shocks. The financial shock invariably remains contractionary for sometime after recessions have ended. The shock accounts for a large part of the variance of GDP and is strongly negatively correlated with the external finance premium. Second-moments comparisons across variants of the model with and without a (stochastic) FA mechanism suggests the stochastic FA model helps us understand the data.

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File URL: http://repo.sire.ac.uk/handle/10943/71
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Paper provided by Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) in its series SIRE Discussion Papers with number 2008-58.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:71
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  1. Jean-Pierre Danthine & Andre Kurmann, 2004. "Fair Wages in a New Keynesian Model of the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(1), pages 107-142, January.
  2. Szilárd Benk & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2007. "Money Velocity in an Endogenous Growth Business Cycle with Credit Shocks," MNB Working Papers 2007/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  3. Ferre De Graeve, 2006. "The External Finance Premium and the Macroeconomy: US post-WWII Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 84, Society for Computational Economics.
  4. Szilárd Benk & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2005. "Credit Shocks in the Financial Deregulatory Era: Not the Usual Suspects," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(3), pages 668-687, July.
  5. Faia, Ester & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices and Credit Frictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 4880, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Ian Christensen & Ali Dib, 2008. "The Financial Accelerator in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 155-178, January.
  7. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
  8. Robert Townsend, 1979. "Optimal contracts and competitive markets with costly state verification," Staff Report 45, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  9. Ingram, B.F. & Kocherlakota, N.R. & Savin, N.E., 1992. "Explaining Business Cycles : A Multiple Shock Approach," Working Papers 92-09, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
  10. Gilchrist, Simon & Leahy, John V., 2002. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-97, January.
  11. Andrew Levin & Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1151, Society for Computational Economics.
  12. Meier, André & Müller, Gernot J., 2005. "Fleshing out the monetary transmission mechanism: output composition and the role of financial frictions," Working Paper Series 0500, European Central Bank.
  13. Blankenau, William & Ayhan Kose, M. & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "Can world real interest rates explain business cycles in a small open economy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 867-889, June.
  14. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio Natalucci, 2001. "External constraints on monetary policy and the financial accelerator," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  15. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Christoph Thoenissen, 2007. "Money And Monetary Policy In Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(s1), pages 88-122, 09.
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