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Financial Frictions, Financial Shocks, and Aggregate Volatility

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  • Fuentes-Albero, Cristina

Abstract

I revisit the Great Inflation and the Great Moderation for nominal and real variables. I document that while financial price variables follow such a pattern; financial quantity variables experience a continuous immoderation. A model with financial frictions and financial shocks allowing for structural breaks in the size of shocks and the institutional framework is estimated. The paper shows that while the Great Inflation was driven by bad luck, the Great Moderation is mostly due to better financial institutions. Financial shocks arise as relevant drivers of US business cycle fluctuations.

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  • Fuentes-Albero, Cristina, 2012. "Financial Frictions, Financial Shocks, and Aggregate Volatility," Dynare Working Papers 18, CEPREMAP.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpm:dynare:018
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Furlanetto & Paolo Gelain & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2014. "Output Gap in Presence of Financial Frictions and Monetary Policy Trade-offs," IMF Working Papers 2014/128, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Aliaga, Augusto, 2020. "Reglas de política monetaria para una economía abierta con fricciones financieras: Un enfoque Bayesiano [Monetary policy rules for an open economy with financial frictions: A Bayesian approach]," MPRA Paper 100604, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2021. "Regime‐dependent effects of uncertainty shocks: A structural interpretation," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(4), pages 1139-1170, November.
    4. Francesco Furlanetto & Paolo Gelain & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2021. "Output Gap, Monetary Policy Trade-offs, and Financial Frictions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 52-70, July.
    5. Andrés Fernández & Adam Gulan, 2015. "Interest Rates, Leverage, and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Financial Frictions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 153-188, July.
    6. Andrés Fernández & Adam Gulan, 2015. "Interest Rates, Leverage, and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Financial Frictions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 153-188, July.
    7. Fernández, Andrés & Gulan, Adam, 2012. "Interest rates and business cycles in emerging economies: the role of financial frictions," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 23/2012, Bank of Finland.
    8. Gunn Christopher M. & Johri Alok & Letendre Marc-André, 2023. "Charge-offs, Defaults and the Financial Accelerator," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(1), pages 427-471, January.
    9. Alan Finkelstein Shapiro & Andres Gonzalez, 2015. "Macroprudential Policy and Labor Market Dynamics in Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 2015/078, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Christoph Görtz & Christopher Gunn & Thomas A. Lubik, 2024. "The Changing Nature of Technology Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 11385, CESifo.
    11. Candian, Giacomo & Dmitriev, Mikhail, 2020. "Default recovery rates and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    12. Alan Finkelstein-Shapiro & Andrés González Gómez, 2015. "Macroprudential Policy and Labor Market Dynamics in Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 88738, Inter-American Development Bank.
    13. Josef Hollmayr & Michael Kuehl, 2016. "Imperfect Information about Financial Frictions and Consequences for the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 22, pages 179-207, October.
    14. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2016. "Volatility Co-movement and the Great Moderation. An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 804, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    15. Richard Higgins, C., 2020. "Financial frictions and changing macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    16. Higgins, C. Richard, 2023. "Risk and Uncertainty: The Role of Financial Frictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    17. Aliaga Miranda, Augusto, 2020. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy with financial frictions: A Bayesian approach," Dynare Working Papers 62, CEPREMAP.
    18. Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Giraitis, Liudas & Kapetanios, George & Petrova, Katerina, 2016. "A time varying DSGE model with financial frictions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 690-716.
    19. Francesco Furlanetto & Paolo Gelain & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2021. "Output Gap, Monetary Policy Trade-offs, and Financial Frictions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 52-70, July.
    20. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2016. "Volatility Co-movement and the Great Moderation. An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 804, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    21. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2012_023 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Christoph Gortz & Christopher Gunn & Thomas Lubik, 2022. "Split Personalities: The Changing Nature of Technology Shocks," Carleton Economic Papers 22-06, Carleton University, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Great Inflation; Great Moderation; immoderation; financial frictions; financial shocks; structural breaks; Bayesian methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

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