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Financial Frictions, Financial Shocks, and Aggregate Volatility

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  • Cristina Fuentes-Albero

    (Rutgers University, Department of Economics)

Abstract

The two main empirical regularities regarding US postwar nominal and real business cycles are the Great Inflation and the Great Moderation. While the volatility of financial price variables also follows such pattern, financial quantity variables have experienced a continuous immoderation. We examine these patterns in volatility by estimating a DSGE model with financial frictions and financial shocks allowing for structural breaks in the size of shocks and the institutional framework. We conclude that (i ) while the Great Inflation was driven by bad luck, the Great Moderation is mostly due to better financial institutions; (ii ) financial shocks are the main drivers of financial variables, investment, and the nominal interest rate and play a secondary role as drivers of consumption, output, inflation, and hours worked; (iii ) investment-specific technology shocks play an almost negligible role as drivers of the US business cycle. Creation-Date: 2012-02-03

Suggested Citation

  • Cristina Fuentes-Albero, "undated". "Financial Frictions, Financial Shocks, and Aggregate Volatility," Departmental Working Papers 201201, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:rut:rutres:201201
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    2. Francesco Furlanetto & Paolo Gelain & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2021. "Output Gap, Monetary Policy Trade-offs, and Financial Frictions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 52-70, July.
    3. Candian, Giacomo & Dmitriev, Mikhail, 2020. "Default recovery rates and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    4. Christoph Gortz & Christopher Gunn & Thomas A. Lubik, 2024. "The Changing Nature of Technology Shocks," Working Paper 99119, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
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    6. Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Giraitis, Liudas & Kapetanios, George & Petrova, Katerina, 2016. "A time varying DSGE model with financial frictions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 690-716.
    7. Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2021. "Regime‐dependent effects of uncertainty shocks: A structural interpretation," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(4), pages 1139-1170, November.
    8. repec:hhs:bofrdp:2012_023 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Alan Finkelstein-Shapiro & Andrés González Gómez, 2015. "Macroprudential Policy and Labor Market Dynamics in Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 88738, Inter-American Development Bank.
    10. Christoph Gortz & Christopher Gunn & Thomas Lubik, 2022. "Split Personalities: The Changing Nature of Technology Shocks," Carleton Economic Papers 22-06, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    11. Aliaga, Augusto, 2020. "Reglas de política monetaria para una economía abierta con fricciones financieras: Un enfoque Bayesiano [Monetary policy rules for an open economy with financial frictions: A Bayesian approach]," MPRA Paper 100604, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Josef Hollmayr & Michael Kuehl, 2016. "Imperfect Information about Financial Frictions and Consequences for the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 22, pages 179-207, October.
    13. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2016. "Volatility Co-movement and the Great Moderation. An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 804, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    14. Adam Gulan & Andres Fernandez, 2012. "Interest Rates and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies.The Role of Financial Frictions," 2012 Meeting Papers 849, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Gunn Christopher M. & Johri Alok & Letendre Marc-André, 2023. "Charge-offs, Defaults and the Financial Accelerator," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(1), pages 427-471, January.
    16. Francesco Furlanetto & Paolo Gelain & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2014. "Output Gap in Presence of Financial Frictions and Monetary Policy Trade-offs," IMF Working Papers 2014/128, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Chatterjee, Ujjal & French, Joseph J. & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Borochin, Paul, 2024. "Financial intermediation and informational efficiency: Predicting business cycles," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    18. Richard Higgins, C., 2020. "Financial frictions and changing macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    19. Francesco Furlanetto & Paolo Gelain & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2021. "Output Gap, Monetary Policy Trade-offs, and Financial Frictions," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 52-70, July.
    20. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2016. "Volatility Co-movement and the Great Moderation. An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 804, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    21. Fernández Martín, Andrés & Gulan, Adam, 2012. "Interest Rates and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Financial Frictions," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4129, Inter-American Development Bank.
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    23. Higgins, C. Richard, 2023. "Risk and Uncertainty: The Role of Financial Frictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    24. Andrés Fernández & Adam Gulan, 2015. "Interest Rates, Leverage, and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Financial Frictions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 153-188, July.
    25. Andrés Fernández & Adam Gulan, 2015. "Interest Rates, Leverage, and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Financial Frictions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 153-188, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial frictions; financial shocks; structural break; Great Moderation; Great Inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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