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Financial intermediation and informational efficiency: Predicting business cycles

Author

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  • Chatterjee, Ujjal
  • French, Joseph J.
  • Gurdgiev, Constantin
  • Borochin, Paul

Abstract

Theory posits that financial intermediation (FI) spurs economic growth and supports financial system stability by reducing informational asymmetries and agency problems. Most of this literature focuses on bank lending and has limited success in capturing changes in macroeconomic aggregates. We consider a large set of different financial intermediaries to show that aggregate FI assets contain leading information about real GDP, investment, consumption, industrial production, and unemployment. Bank and shadow bank assets alone contain only limited information about future states of the economy. Overall, FI improves informational efficiency of the markets by providing transparent leading signals of the future economic conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Chatterjee, Ujjal & French, Joseph J. & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Borochin, Paul, 2024. "Financial intermediation and informational efficiency: Predicting business cycles," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:96:y:2024:i:pb:s1059056024005999
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103607
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Financial intermediation; Monetary policy; Financial stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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