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Big Banks and Macroeconomic Outcomes: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence of Granularity

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  • Franziska Bremus
  • Claudia M. Buch
  • Katheryn N. Russ
  • Monika Schnitzer

Abstract

Does the mere presence of big banks affect macroeconomic outcomes? In this paper, we develop a theory of granularity (Gabaix, 2011) for the banking sector, introducing Bertrand competition and heterogeneous banks charging variable markups. Using this framework, we show conditions under which idiosyncratic shocks to bank lending can generate aggregate fluctuations in the credit supply when the banking sector is highly concentrated. We empirically assess the relevance of these granular effects in banking using a linked micro-macro dataset of more than 80 countries for the years 1995-2009. The banking sector for many countries is indeed granular, as the right tail of the bank size distribution follows a power law. We then demonstrate granular effects in the banking sector on macroeconomic outcomes. The presence of big banks measured by high market concentration is associated with a positive and significant relationship between bank-level credit growth and aggregate growth of credit or gross domestic product.

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  • Franziska Bremus & Claudia M. Buch & Katheryn N. Russ & Monika Schnitzer, 2013. "Big Banks and Macroeconomic Outcomes: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence of Granularity," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1348, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1348
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    Cited by:

    1. Claudia M. Buch & Oliver Holtemöller, 2014. "Do we need new modelling approaches in macroeconomics?," Chapters,in: Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 3, pages 36-58 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Cacciatore, Matteo & Ghironi, Fabio & Stebunovs, Viktors, 2015. "The domestic and international effects of interstate U.S. banking," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 171-187.
    3. Jose L. Fillat & Stefania Garetto & Arthur V. Smith, 2018. "What are the consequences of global banking for the international transmission of shocks? A quantitative analysis∗," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series dp-303, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    4. Krause, Thomas & Buch, Claudia M. & Tonzer, Lena, 2015. "Drivers of Systemic Risk: Do National and European Perspectives Differ?," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113103, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Shouwei Li & Minghui Zhang, 2016. "Money-center structures in dynamic banking systems," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 89(10), pages 1-7, October.
    6. Itzhak Ben-DAVID & Francesco A. FRANZONI & Rabih MOUSSAWI & John SEDUNOV III, 2015. "The Granular Nature of Large Institutional Investors," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 15-67, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Apr 2016.
    7. Barattieri, Alessandro & Moretti, Laura & Quadrini, Vincenzo, 2016. "Banks Interconnectivity and Leverage," Research Technical Papers 07/RT/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
    8. repec:bla:obuest:v:79:y:2017:i:4:p:546-569 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Dean Corbae & Pablo D'Erasmo, 2015. "Foreign Competition and Banking Industry Dynamics," 2015 Meeting Papers 1205, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Lux, Thomas, 2014. "Emergence of a Core-Periphery Structure in a Simple Dynamic Model of the Interbank Market," FinMaP-Working Papers 3, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    11. Bremus, Franziska & Buch, Claudia M., 2017. "Granularity in banking and growth: Does financial openness matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 300-316.
    12. Franziska Bremus & Claudia M. Buch, 2015. "Banking Market Structure and Macroeconomic Stability: Are Low-Income Countries Special?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 73-100, February.
    13. Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2013. "How Much do Idiosyncratic Bank Shocks Affect Investment? Evidence from Matched Bank-Firm Loan Data," NBER Working Papers 18890, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Jose Fillat & Arthur Smith & Stefania Garetto, 2018. "To Branch or not to Branch? A Quantitative Evaluation of the Consequences of Global Banks’ Organization," 2018 Meeting Papers 1079, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Arne J. Nagengast & João Amador, 2015. "The Effect of Bank Shocks on Firm-Level and Aggregate Investment," Working Papers w201515, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    16. Lux, Thomas, 2016. "Network effects and systemic risk in the banking sector," FinMaP-Working Papers 62, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    17. Kerl, Cornelia & Niepmann, Friederike, 2014. "What determines the composition of international bank flows?," Staff Reports 681, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    18. Lux, Thomas, 2014. "Emergence of a core-periphery structure in a simple dynamic model of the interbank market," Kiel Working Papers 1917, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    19. Buch, Claudia M. & Krause, Thomas & Tonzer, Lena, 2017. "Drivers of systemic risk: Do national and European perspectives differ?," Discussion Papers 09/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Bremus, Franziska M., 2015. "Cross-border banking, bank market structures and market power: Theory and cross-country evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 242-259.
    21. Bremus, Franziska & Krause, Thomas & Noth, Felix, 2017. "Bank-specific shocks and house price growth in the U.S," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    22. Stefania Garetto & Martin Goetz & Jose Fillat, 2014. "Global Banks' Dynamics and the International Transmission of Shocks," 2014 Meeting Papers 1333, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    23. Lux, Thomas, 2015. "Emergence of a core-periphery structure in a simple dynamic model of the interbank market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 11-23.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Granularity; concentration; bank competition; macroeconomic outcomes; bank markups;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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