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Shocks at large banks and banking sector distress: the Banking Granular Residual

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  • Blank, Sven
  • Buch, Claudia M.
  • Neugebauer, Katja

Abstract

Size matters in banking. In this paper, we explore whether shocks originating at large banks affect the probability of distress of smaller banks and thus the stability of the banking system. Our analysis proceeds in two steps. In a first step, we follow Gabaix (2008a) and construct a measure of idiosyncratic shocks at large banks, the so-called Banking Granular Residual. This measure documents the importance of size effects for the German banking system. In a second step, we incorporate this measure of idiosyncratic shocks at large banks into an integrated stress-testing model for the German banking system following De Graeve et al. (2007). We find that positive shocks at large banks reduce the probability of distress of small banks.

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Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies with number 2009,04.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp2:200904
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Keywords: Banking sector distress; size effects; shock propagation; Granular Residual;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
  • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
  • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
  • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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  1. John H. Boyd & Gianni De Nicolã, 2005. "The Theory of Bank Risk Taking and Competition Revisited," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1329-1343, 06.
  2. Xavier Gabaix, 2008. "Power Laws in Economics and Finance," NBER Working Papers 14299, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. J.A. Bikker & K. Haaf, 2001. "Competition, Concentration and their Relationship: an EmpiricalAnalysis of the Banking Industry," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 68, Netherlands Central Bank.
  8. Hans Degryse & Grégory Nguyen, 2007. "Interbank Exposures: An Empirical Examination of Contagion Risk in the Belgian Banking System," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 123-171, June.
  9. Eric Santor, 2003. "Banking Crises and Contagion: Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 03-1, Bank of Canada.
  10. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1301-1314, September.
  11. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2002. "Estimating Bilateral Exposures in the German Interbank Market: Is there a Danger of Contagion?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  12. Xavier Gabaix, 2005. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," 2005 Meeting Papers 470, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  13. De Graeve, F. & Kick, T. & Koetter, M., 2008. "Monetary policy and financial (in)stability: An integrated micro-macro approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 205-231, September.
  14. Lelyveld, Iman van & Liedorp, Franka, 2006. "Interbank Contagion in the Dutch Banking Sector: A Sensitivity Analysis," MPRA Paper 806, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique, 1997. "Rational Herd Behavior and the Globalization of Securities Markets," Working Papers 97-26, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  16. Koetter, Michael & Kick, Thomas, 2007. "Slippery slopes of stress: ordered failure events in German banking," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  17. Barbara Casu & Claudia Girardone, 2006. "Bank Competition, Concentration And Efficiency In The Single European Market," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(4), pages 441-468, 07.
  18. Pushkin, Dmitri O & Aref, Hassan, 2004. "Bank mergers as scale-free coagulation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 336(3), pages 571-584.
  19. Carmen M. Reinhart & Sara Calvo, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?," Peterson Institute Press: Chapters, in: Guillermo A. Calvo & Morris Goldstein & Eduard Hochreiter (ed.), Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets After the Mexican Crisis, pages 151-171 Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  20. Jacobson, Tor & Lindé, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2005. "Exploring Interactions between Real Activity and the Financial Stance," Working Paper Series 184, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  21. Cavallo, Laura & Rossi, Stefania P. S., 2001. "Scale and scope economies in the European banking systems," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(4-5), pages 515-531, December.
  22. Harold A. Black & M. Cary Collins & Breck L. Robinson & Robert L. Schweitzer, 1997. "Changes In Market Perception Of Riskiness: The Case Of Too-Big-To-Fail," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 389-406, 09.
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Cited by:

  1. Buch, Claudia M. & Neugebauer, Katja, 2011. "Bank-specific shocks and the real economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2179-2187, August.
  2. Franziska Bremus & Claudia M. Buch, 2013. "Granularity in Banking and Growth: Does Financial Openness Matter?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1346, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  3. Sven Blank & Jonas Dovern, 2010. "What macroeconomic shocks affect the German banking system?: Analysis in an integrated micro-macro model," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 2(2), pages 126-148, June.
  4. Vazquez, Francisco & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Souto, Marcos, 2012. "A macro stress test model of credit risk for the Brazilian banking sector," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 69-83.
  5. Xavier Gabaix, 2009. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 15286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Bremus, Franziska & Buch, Claudia M. & Russ, Katheryn N. & Schnitzer, Monika, 2013. "Big Banks and Macroeconomic Outcomes: Theory and Cross-Country Evidence of Granularity," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80048, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  7. repec:diw:diwfin:diwfin is not listed on IDEAS
  8. del Rosal, Ignacio, 2013. "The granular hypothesis in EU country exports," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 433-436.
  9. repec:diw:diwfin:diwfin02030 is not listed on IDEAS

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