IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Global banks and crisis transmission

  • Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem
  • Papaioannou, Elias
  • Perri, Fabrizio

We study the effect of financial integration (through banks) on the transmission of international business cycles. In a sample of 18/20 developed countries between 1978 and 2009 we find that, in periods without financial crises, increases in bilateral banking linkages are associated with more divergent output cycles. This relation is significantly weaker during financial turmoil periods, suggesting that financial crises induce co-movement among more financially integrated countries. We also show that countries with stronger, direct and indirect, financial ties to the U.S. experienced more synchronized cycles with the U.S. during the recent 2007–2009 crisis. We then interpret these findings using a simple general equilibrium model of international business cycles with banks and shocks to banking activity. The model suggests that the relation between integration and synchronization depends on the type of shocks hitting the world economy, and that shocks to global banks played an important role in triggering and spreading the 2007–2009 crisis.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199612001274
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 89 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 495-510

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:89:y:2013:i:2:p:495-510
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Fabrizio Perri & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2011. "International Recessions," NBER Working Papers 17201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure," NBER Working Papers 15358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Philip R. Lane, 2010. "The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis," IMF Working Papers 10/171, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace," CEPR Discussion Papers 7131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Maurice Obstfeld, 1992. "Risk-Taking, Global Diversification, and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4093, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. S�rensen & Oved Yosha, 1999. "Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence," Working Papers 99-16, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  7. Geert Bekaert & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud J. Mehl, 2011. "Global Crises and Equity Market Contagion," NBER Working Papers 17121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Pablo Andres Neumeyer & Fabrizio Perri, 1999. "Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: the role of interest rates," Department of Economics Working Papers 014, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  9. Nicola Cetorelli & Linda S. Goldberg, 2010. "Global Banks and International Shock Transmission: Evidence from the Crisis," NBER Working Papers 15974, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2004. "International Investment Patterns," CEPR Discussion Papers 4499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2003. "Breaks in the variability and co-movement of G-7 economic growth," International Finance Discussion Papers 786, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Marianne Baxter & Michael Kouparitsas, 2004. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Working Paper Series WP-04-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  13. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram Rajan, 2009. "The Credit Crisis: Conjectures about Causes and Remedies," NBER Working Papers 14739, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1992. "Liquidity Effects and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," NBER Working Papers 3974, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Imbs, Jean, 2006. "The real effects of financial integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 296-324, March.
  16. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2009. "Financial Globalization, Financial Crises and Contagion," NBER Working Papers 15432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Papaioannou, Elias, 2008. "What Drives International Financial Flows? Politics, Institutions and Other Determinants," CEPR Discussion Papers 7010, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Richard Portes & Helene Rey, 2000. "The determinants of cross-border equity flows," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20203, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  19. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2002. "A Gravity Model of Sovereign Lending: Trade, Default and Credit," NBER Working Papers 9285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Kollmann, Robert & Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2011. "Global banking and international business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 407-426, April.
  22. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1995. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(4), pages 821-54, November.
  23. Alicia García-Herrero & Juan M. Ruiz, 2008. "Do trade and financial linkages foster business cycle synchronization in a small economy?," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0810, Banco de Espa�a.
  24. Casey Mulligan, 2009. "What Caused the Recession of 2008? Hints from Labor Productivity," NBER Working Papers 14729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison," NBER Working Papers 13761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1994. "Financial Intermediation, Loanable Funds and the Real Sector," Working papers 95-1, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  27. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 1999. "Financial Autarky and International Business Cycles," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 320, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 30 Apr 2000.
  28. Chudik, Alexander & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2011. "Identifying the global transmission of the 2007-2009 financial crisis in a GVAR model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 325-339, April.
  29. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973, March.
  30. Michael B. Devereux & James Yetman, 2010. "Leverage Constraints and the International Transmission of Shocks," NBER Working Papers 16226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1987. "International real business cycles," Working Papers 426, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  32. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," Scholarly Articles 11129155, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  33. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Peydró, José-Luis, 2010. "What lies beneath the euro's effect on financial integration? Currency risk, legal harmonization, or trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 75-88, May.
  34. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-in-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275, February.
  35. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Did the Euro imply more correlation of cycles?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13394, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  36. Chudik, Alexander & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2011. "Identifying the global transmission of the 2007-09 financial crisis in a GVAR Model," Working Paper Series 1285, European Central Bank.
  37. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Chapter 1," MPRA Paper 17452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  38. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2001. "Financial Globalization and Real Regionalization," Working Papers 01-05, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  39. Canova, Fabio, 1999. "Does Detrending Matter for the Determination of the Reference Cycle and the Selection of Turning Points?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 126-50, January.
  40. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
  41. Imbs, Jean, 2010. "The First Global Recession in Decades," CEPR Discussion Papers 7973, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  42. Mehmet Fatih Ekinci & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent Sorensen, 2007. "Financial Integration within EU Countries: The Role of Institutions, Confidence and Trust," NBER Working Papers 13440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. Pavlova, Anna & Rigobon, Roberto, 2011. "International Macro-Finance," CEPR Discussion Papers 8218, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  44. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Thomas M. Eisenbach & Yuliy Sannikov, 2012. "Macroeconomics with Financial Frictions: A Survey," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000384, David K. Levine.
  45. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Vegh, Carlos, 2003. "The unholy trinity of financial contagion," MPRA Paper 13878, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  46. Helbling, Thomas & Huidrom, Raju & Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher, 2011. "Do credit shocks matter? A global perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 340-353, April.
  47. Morgan, Donald & Rime, Bertrand & Strahan, Philip E., 2004. "Bank Integration and State Business Cycles," SIFR Research Report Series 30, Institute for Financial Research.
  48. Buch, Claudia M. & Carstensen, Kai & Schertler, Andrea, 2010. "Macroeconomic shocks and banks’ foreign assets," Munich Reprints in Economics 19988, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  49. Giovanni Lombardo & Luca Dedola, 2010. "Financial Frictions, Financial Integration and the International Propagation of Shocks," 2010 Meeting Papers 288, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  50. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Strobbe, Francesco & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2010. "Bilateral Financial Linkages and Global Imbalances: A View on The Eve of the Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8173, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  51. Inklaar, Robert & Jong-A-Pin, Richard & de Haan, Jakob, 2008. "Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries--A re-examination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 646-666, May.
  52. Patrick McGuire & Goetz von Peter, 2009. "The US dollar shortage in global banking and the international policy response," BIS Working Papers 291, Bank for International Settlements.
  53. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," MPRA Paper 13709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  54. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2004. "Cultural Biases in Economic Exchange," NBER Working Papers 11005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  55. Glenn Otto & Graham Voss & Luke Willard, 2001. "Understanding OECD Output Correlations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  56. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: Early Warning," NBER Working Papers 15357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  57. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1992. "Liquidity effects, the monetary transmission mechanism, and monetary policy," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Nov, pages 2-14.
  58. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
  59. Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2010. "How Debt Markets Have Malfunctioned in the Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 3-28, Winter.
  60. Devereux, Michael B. & Sutherland, Alan, 2011. "Evaluating international financial integration under leverage constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 427-442, April.
  61. Iacoviello, Matteo & Minetti, Raoul, 2006. "International business cycles with domestic and foreign lenders," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 2267-2282, November.
  62. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2010. "Resolution of Banking Crises; The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly," IMF Working Papers 10/146, International Monetary Fund.
  63. V.V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "Facts and myths about the financial crisis of 2008," Working Papers 666, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  64. Olivero, María Pía, 2010. "Market power in banking, countercyclical margins and the international transmission of business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 292-301, March.
  65. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 2003. "Spillovers through banking centers: a panel data analysis of bank flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 483-509, August.
  66. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. Sorensen & Oved Yosha, 1999. "Industrial specialization and the asymmetry of shocks across regions," Research Working Paper 99-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  67. Kubelec, Chris & Sa, Filipa, 2010. "The geographical composition of national external balance sheets: 1980-2005," Bank of England working papers 384, Bank of England.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:89:y:2013:i:2:p:495-510. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.