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The unholy trinity of financial contagion

  • Reinhart, Carmen
  • Kaminsky, Graciela
  • Vegh, Carlos

Over the last 20 years, some financial events, such as devaluations or defaults, have triggered an immediate adverse chain reaction in other countries -- which we call fast and furious contagion. Yet, on other occasions, similar events have failed to trigger any immediate international reaction. We argue that fast and furious contagion episodes are characterized by "the unholy trinity": (i) they follow a large surge in capital flows; (ii) they come as a surprise; and (iii) they involve a leveraged common creditor. In contrast, when similar events have elicited little international reaction, they were widely anticipated and took place at a time when capital flows had already subsided.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13878/1/MPRA_paper_13878.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 13878.

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Date of creation: Sep 2003
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Economic Perspectives 4.17(2003): pp. 51-74
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13878
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  7. repec:rus:hseeco:123922 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
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  25. Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P, 2003. "Common Vulnerabilities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3759, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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