Crises in the Global Economy from Tulips to Today: Contagion and Consequences
This paper examines the historical record of the financial crises that have often accompanied surges of globalization in the past. The issue of contagion, the spread of financial turbulence from the crisis center to its trading partners, is confronted with historical and statistical evidence on the causes and consequences of well-known crises. In general, contagion seems often confused with prior interdependence, and crises are less widespread and shorter in duration than anecdotal evidence would indicate. Special attention is given to the gold standard period of 1880-1913, which we find useful to divide into the initial period of deflation, 1880-1896, and the following period of mild inflation, 1897-1913. We find evidence of changes in the pattern of 'contagion' from core to periphery countries between the two periods, but in both periods apparent contagions can more readily be interpreted as responses to common shocks. Lessons for the present period can only be tentative, but the similarities in learning experiences are striking.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Bordo, Michael D., Alan M. Taylor, and Jeffrey G. Williamson (eds.) Globalization in Historical Perspective. Chicago and London: University of Chicago Press, 2003.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1991.
"The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
493, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Larry Neal, 1998. "The financial crisis of 1825 and the restructuring of the British financial system," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 53-76.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996.
"The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marc Flandreau, 1997.
"Central Bank Cooperation in Historical Perspective: A Sceptical View,"
Economic History Review,
Economic History Society, vol. 50(4), pages 735-763, November.
- Marc Flandreau, 1997. "Central Bank Co-operation in Historical Perspective: a Sceptical View," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/648, Sciences Po.
- Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose & Donald J. Mathieson, 1990.
"An Empirical Exploration of Exchange Rate Target-Zones,"
NBER Working Papers
3543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K. & Mathieson, Donald J., 1991. "An empirical exploration of exchange-rate target-zones," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 7-65, January.
- Donald J. Mathieson & Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 1991. "An Empirical Exploration of Exchange Rate Target-Zones," IMF Working Papers 91/15, International Monetary Fund.
- Ulf Söderström & Alexis Stenfors, 1995.
"Explaining devaluation expectations in the EMS,"
Finnish Economic Papers,
Finnish Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 63-81, Autumn.
- Stenfors, Alexis & Söderström, Ulf, 1994. "Explaining Devaluation Expectations in the EMS," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 20, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Michael D. Bordo, 1993.
"The Bretton Woods International Monetary System: A Historical Overview,"
in: A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform, pages 3-108
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael D. Bordo, 1992. "The Bretton Woods International Monetary System: An Historical Overview," NBER Working Papers 4033, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Flandreau, Marc, 1993. "On the inflationary bias of common currencies : The Latin Union puzzle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 501-506, April.
- Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002.
"No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
- Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen, 1999. "Is our Current International Economic Environment Unusually Crisis Prone?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: David Gruen & Luke Gower (ed.), Capital Flows and the International Financial System Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Miller, Merton, 1998. "Asian financial crisis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 355-358, July.
- Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2001. "Globalization and History: The Evolution of a Nineteenth-Century Atlantic Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262650592, June.
- Reuven Glick & Ramon Moreno & Mark Spiegel, 2001. "Financial crises in emerging markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.23.
- Flandreau, Marc, 1995. "An Essay on the Emergence of the International Gold Standard, 1870-80," CEPR Discussion Papers 1210, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998.
"Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis,"
IMF Working Papers
98/155, International Monetary Fund.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
- Lewis, Karen K., 1991. "An empirical exploration of exchange-rate target-zones a comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 67-77, January.
- Michael D. Bordo & Anna J. Schwartz, 1994. "The Specie Standard as a Contingent Rule: Some Evidence for Core and Peripheral Countries, 1880-1990," NBER Working Papers 4860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Goodhart, Charles & Delargy, P J R, 1998. "Financial Crises: Plus ca Change, Plus C'est La Meme Chose," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 261-87, December.
- Michael D. Bordo & Antu P. Murshid, 2000. "Are Financial Crises Becoming Increasingly More Contagious? What is the Historical Evidence on Contagion?," NBER Working Papers 7900, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Flandreau, Marc, 1996. "The French Crime of 1873: An Essay on the Emergence of the International Gold Standard, 1870–1880," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(04), pages 862-897, December.
- Oppers, S.E., 1994.
"Was the Worldwide Shift to Gold Inevitable? An Analysis of the End pf Bimetalism,"
351, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Oppers, Stefan Erik, 1996. "Was the worldwide shift to gold inevitable? An analysis of the end of bimetallism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 143-162, February.
- Neal, Larry, 2000. "How it all began: the monetary and financial architecture of Europe during the first global capital markets, 1648 1815," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 117-140, October.
- Michael D. Bordo & Barry Eichengreen, 1993. "A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bord93-1.
- repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/648 is not listed on IDEAS
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9147. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.