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Globalization and imbalances in historical perspective

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  • Michael D. Bordo

Abstract

Global imbalances associated with the U.S. current account deficit have given rise to speculation about the nature of the impending adjustment: Will it be smooth and gradual, or will it be sudden and costly? This paper summarizes the two views and then considers three historical periods with similar pressures--an earlier era of globalization from 1870 to 1914, the interwar gold standard, and Bretton Woods. A comparison of the periods and their outcomes suggests current global imbalances might resolve themselves quietly.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Bordo, 2006. "Globalization and imbalances in historical perspective," Policy Discussion Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Jan.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcpd:y:2006:i:jan:n:13
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael D. Bordo, 1995. "The Gold Standard as a `Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval'," NBER Working Papers 5340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2007. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 339-376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    6. George Soros, 1999. "The International Financial Crisis," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 58-76, March.
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    8. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2005. "An essay on the revived Bretton Woods system," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
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    11. Bordo, Michael D. & Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Schwartz, Anna J., 2002. "Was Expansionary Monetary Policy Feasible during the Great Contraction? An Examination of the Gold Standard Constraint," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 1-28, January.
    12. Barry Eichengreen, 2010. "Global Imbalances and the Lessons of Bretton Woods," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262514141, December.
    13. Alan Greenspan, 2005. "Current account : a speech at Advancing Enterprise 2005 Conference, London, England, February 4, 2005," Speech 72, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Michael D. Bordo, 1993. "The Bretton Woods International Monetary System: A Historical Overview," NBER Chapters, in: A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform, pages 3-108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2004. "Financial globalization and exchange rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19926, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Michael D. Bordo & Antu P. Murshid, 2000. "Are Financial Crises Becoming Increasingly More Contagious? What is the Historical Evidence on Contagion?," NBER Working Papers 7900, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen, 1999. "Is our Current International Economic Environment Unusually Crisis Prone?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: David Gruen & Luke Gower (ed.),Capital Flows and the International Financial System, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ketenci, Natalya & Uz, Idil, 2010. "Determinants of current account in the EU: the relation between internal and external balances in the new members," MPRA Paper 27466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Idil UZ, 2010. "DETERMINANTS OF CURRENT ACCOUNT: The Relation between Internal and External Balances in Turkey," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(2).
    3. Salvatore, Dominick, 2006. "Twin deficits in the G-7 countries and global structural imbalances," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 701-712, September.
    4. Karau, Sören, 2020. "Buried in the vaults of central banks: Monetary gold hoarding and the slide into the Great Depression," Discussion Papers 63/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Carles Manera, 2016. "A systemic crisis in the context of globalization: the Great Recession in the perspective of economic history, 1970-2008," DEA Working Papers 77, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.

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