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Determinants of current account in the EU: the relation between internal and external balances in the new members

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  • Ketenci, Natalya
  • Uz, Idil

Abstract

This paper considers the major determinants of the current account in the new members of the EU. It examines the long-run and short-run impact of real exchange rate, investment, private and public savings on current account. The bounds testing autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration is used and the results indicate that twin deficit exists; in another words, government budget deficit shocks have led to deficit in current accounts in Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia and Slovakia for the considered period. At the same time, empirical evidence was found that private savings, investment and real exchange rate are key variables as well, causing changes in the current account in the long-run as well as in the short-run. Finally, stability tests were applied to the model indicating no evidence of any structural instability in the model of these countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ketenci, Natalya & Uz, Idil, 2010. "Determinants of current account in the EU: the relation between internal and external balances in the new members," MPRA Paper 27466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:27466
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    Cited by:

    1. Gabrisch, Hubert, 2011. "On the Twin Deficits Hypothesis and the Import Propensity in Transition Countries," IWH Discussion Papers 20/2011, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    2. Tosun, M. Umur & Iyidogan, Pelin Varol & Telatar, Erdinç, 2014. "The Twin Deficits in Selected Central and Eastern European Economies: Bounds Testing Approach with Causality Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 141-160, June.
    3. Nurgun Topalli & İbrahim Dogan, 2016. "The structure and sustainability of current account deficit: Turkish evidence from regime switching," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 570-589, June.
    4. Hubert Gabrisch, 2015. "On the twin deficits hypothesis and the import intensity in transition countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 205-220, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Twin deficit; current account balance; budget deficit; EU.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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