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Content
February 2021, Volume 29, Issue 1
- 91435 COVID-19 Containment Measures, Health and the Economy
by Matthew Famiglietti & Fernando Leibovici - 91436 Economic Improvements Anticipated in the Months Ahead
by Kevin L. Kliesen - 91437 Black-Owned Banks and the Communities They Serve
by Eldar Beiseitov
January 2021, Volume 29, Issue 1
- 91438 How College Attainment Differs by Birthplace
by Maggie Isaacson & Hannah Rubinton - 91439 A Look Back at Regional Economic Performance before COVID-19
by Charles S. Gascon - 91440 How Branch Closures Affect Access to Banking Services
by Drew Dahl & Michelle Franke & James W. Fuchs
April 2021, Volume 29, Issue 1
- 91431 COVID-19 and States' Revenues: An Analysis
by Charles S. Gascon & Jesse LaBelle
March 2021, Volume 29, Issue 1
- 91432 Is Inflation on the Horizon for the U.S. Economy?
by James B. Bullard - 91433 Women Affected Most by COVID-19 Disruptions in the Labor Market
by Alexander Monge-Naranjo & Qiuhan Sun - 91434 College Freshman Enrollment Drops during Pandemic
by Oksana Leukhina & Devin Werner
October 2020, Volume 28, Issue 4
- 89514 How COVID-19 Has Affected the Municipal Bond Market
by Juan M. Sanchez & Olivia Wilkinson - 89515 Will Tech Improvements for Trading Services Switch the U.S. into a Net Exporter?
by Alexander Monge-Naranjo & Qiuhan Sun - 89516 The Impact of COVID-19 on the Residential Real Estate Market
by
December 2020, Volume 28, Issue 4
- 89498 Should Social Distancing Be Mandatory during a Pandemic?
by Guillaume Vandenbroucke - 89507 Educational Attainment of Immigrants at the National and Eighth District Levels
by Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Praew Grittayaphong - 89509 Does the National Debt Matter?
by David Andolfatto - 89510 Improving Conditions Could Bode Well for Economic Recovery
by Kevin L. Kliesen
November 2020, Volume 28, Issue 4
- 89512 Anecdotal Evidence Suggests State Capacity Unrelated to COVID-19 Spread
by Iris Arbogast & Brian Reinbold & Yi Wen - 89518 Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy Responses to the COVID-19 Crisis
by James B. Bullard
July 2020, Volume 28, Issue 3
- 1 The State of the COVID-19 Crisis in the U.S
by James B. Bullard
September 2020, Volume 28, Issue 3
- 88934 Home Production Activity during the COVID-19 Shutdown
by Oksana Leukhina & Zhixiu Yu - 88935 Forecasts Point to Cautious Optimism for Near-term Rebound
by Kevin L. Kliesen
August 2020, Volume 28, Issue 3
- 88936 Using High-Frequency Data to Track the Regional Economy
by Charles S. Gascon & Amelia Schmitz - 88937 Which Jobs Have Been Hit Hardest by COVID-19?
by Maximiliano Dvorkin - 88938 The U.S. Financial Landscape on the Eve of the Pandemic
by Fernando M. Martin
July 2020, Volume 28, Issue 2
- 88422 Hospital Capacity amid the COVID-19 Pandemic
by Asha Bharadwaj & Kathryn Bokun & Charles S. Gascon - 88423 How Many People Does It Take to Start a Company?
by Sungki Hong & Devin Werner - 88424 Economic Uncertainty Means Approaching GDP Forecasts with Caution
by Kevin L. Kliesen
May 2020, Volume 28, Issue 2
- 88426 Assessing Second-Quarter Unemployment amid the Pandemic
by James B. Bullard
June 2020, Volume 28, Issue 2
- 88425 Poor Countries Catching Rich Countries in Education, but Not Income
by Makenzie Peake & Guillaume Vandenbroucke
May 2020, Volume 28, Issue 1
- 88304 How Cyber Deposits Affect Perceived Competition in Banking Markets
by Andrew P. Meyer - 88305 As More States Legalize Marijuana, Economics Comes into Play
by Charles S. Gascon - 88306 The Changing Relationship between Trade and America’s Gold Reserves
by Brian Reinbold & Yi Wen
February 2020, Volume 28, Issue 1
- 88310 Forecasters Eye Uncertainties When Sizing Up U.S. Economic Outlook
by Kevin L. Kliesen
March 2020, Volume 28, Issue 1
- 87680 The Efficacy of Enhanced Unemployment Benefits during a Pandemic
by Bill Dupor - 88307 Expected U.S. Macroeconomic Performance during the Pandemic Adjustment Period
by James B. Bullard - 88308 Trends in Startups’ Share of Jobs in the U.S. and Eighth District
by Sungki Hong & Devin Werner - 88309 Same Target, Different Economies: A Cross-Country Analysis of Inflation
by Julie Bennett & YiLi Chien
November 2019, Volume 27, Issue 4
- 86650 Forecasters See Lower U.S. GDP Growth in 2020 as Headwinds Continue
by Kevin L. Kliesen
2019, Volume 27, Issue 3
- 1 Economic Forecasting: Comparing the Fed with the Private Sector
by Amy Y. Guisinger & Michael T. Owyang & Hannah Shell - 2 Financial Markets Signal Concern about U.S. Economic Growth
by Kevin L. Kliesen - 3 Bullard Discusses the Fed’s Monetary Policy Framework Review
by James B. Bullard - 4 Finance and Development: Evidence from Firm-Level Data
by Matthew Famiglietti & Fernando Leibovici - 5 Moving In, Moving Out: The Migration Pattern of the Eighth District
by Sungki Hong & Hannah Shell - 6 Working from Home: More Americans Are Telecommuting
by Iris Arbogast & Charles S. Gascon & Andrew Spewak - 7 A Decade after the Crisis, Has the Global Debt Burden Stabilized?
by Amalia Estenssoro
2019, Volume 27, Issue 2
- 1 Observing the Earnings Gap through Marital Status, Race and Gender
by Makenzie Peake & Guillaume Vandenbroucke - 2 James Bullard Discusses Nominal GDP Targeting
by James B. Bullard - 3 U.S. GDP Shows Surprising Strength, But Challenges Remain
by Kevin L. Kliesen - 4 Better than Ever? The Wealth of Retired Households
by YiLi Chien & Qiuhan Sun - 5 Industry Mix May Help Explain Urban-Rural Divide in Economic Growth
by Charles S. Gascon & Brian Reinbold - 6 What Is Driving Student Debt in the Eighth District?
by Mahdi Ebsim & Julian Kozlowski - 7 The Rise of Automation: How Robots May Impact the U.S. Labor Market
by Asha Bharadwaj & Maximiliano Dvorkin - 8 Unsecured Personal Loans Get a Boost from Fintech Lenders
by Eldar Beiseitov
2019, Volume 27, Issue 1
- 1 Female-Led Firms: Trends and Differences Relative to Male-Led Firms
by Matthew Famiglietti & Fernando Leibovici - 2 Debt Levels Continue to Grow in Eighth District’s Key Metro Areas
by Ryan Mather & Don E. Schlagenhauf - 3 Headwinds, Tailwinds and Whirlwinds: Forecasting the 2019 Economy
by Kevin L. Kliesen - 4 Changing Trade Relations May Affect U.S. Auto Exports in Long Run
by Brian Reinbold & Yi Wen - 5 Slowing U.S. Housing Sector Still Shaped by Great Recession
by Asha Bharadwaj & Charles S. Gascon - 6 Why Are More Credit Unions Buying Community Banks?
by Andrew P. Meyer - 7 The St. Louis Fed’s Focus on Women in Economics
by James B. Bullard - 8 The Unequal Recovery: Measuring Financial Distress by ZIP Code
by Ryan Mather & Juan M. Sanchez
2018, Volume 26, Issue 4
- 1 How Important Are Production Networks to the U.S. Economy?
by Sungki Hong & Hannah Shell & Qiuhan Sun - 2 President's Message: A Year in Review
by James B. Bullard - 3 Dealing with the Leftovers: Residual Seasonality in GDP
by Michael T. Owyang & Hannah Shell - 4 The Role of Age in Determining Stock-Bond Investment Mix
by Guillaume Vandenbroucke - 5 Unauthorized Immigration in the U.S.: Trends in Recent Years
by Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Asha Bharadwaj - 6 Bourbon and Whiskey Distillers Face Rosy Tourism, Vexing Tariffs
by Kathryn Bokun & James W. Fuchs & Charles S. Gascon & Suzanne Jenkins - 7 Measuring Levels of Debt in the Eighth District’s Key Metro Areas
by Ryan Mather & Don E. Schlagenhauf - 8 Forecasters See U.S. GDP Growth Easing in 2019 after 2018 Surge
by Kevin L. Kliesen - 9 Perceived Bias and Income Patterns Differ by Race
by Ana Hernández Kent
2018, Volume 26, Issue 3
- 1 The Risk of Yield Curve Inversion—and How to Avoid It
by James B. Bullard - 2 Understanding the Roots of the U.S. Trade Deficit
by Brian Reinbold & Yi Wen - 3 Taking a Closer Look at U.S. Exports to China
by Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Asha Bharadwaj & Suryadipta Roy - 4 Rising Rates Impact Borrowing Costs for the U.S. Government, Too
by Asha Bharadwaj & Miguel Faria-e-Castro - 5 In the U.S. Hispanic Labor Force, Women Surpass Men in Multiple Ways
by Alexander Monge-Naranjo & Juan I. Vizcaino - 6 Soybeans, the Eighth District’s No. 1 Crop, Caught in Trade Tussle
by Camilla Adams & Jonas C. Crews & Charles S. Gascon - 7 60% of District's Jobs Could Face Automation in the Next 20 Years
by Sungki Hong & Hannah Shell - 8 Forecasters See Solid U.S. GDP Growth during Rest of 2018
by Kevin L. Kliesen - 9 A Tale of Two Economies: Farmers Struggle despite Strong U.S. Economy
by Suzanne Jenkins & Nathan Kauffman
2018, Volume 26, Issue 2
- 1 Reflections on Crisis to Recovery
by James B. Bullard - 2 Hispanics and Their Contribution to America’s Human Capital
by Alexander Monge-Naranjo & Juan I. Vizcaino - 3 Housing Costs and Regional Income Inequality in China and the U.S
by Brian Reinbold & Yi Wen - 4 Unequal Pink Slips? Gender and the Risk of Unemployment
by Guillaume Vandenbroucke & Heting Zhu - 5 Accounting for Age: The Financial Health of Millennials
by YiLi Chien & Paul Morris - 6 St. Louis Fed Steps in to Provide More-Timely Jobs Data
by Charles S. Gascon & Paul Morris - 7 Gauging Debt Levels in the U.S. and Eighth District
by James D. Eubanks & Don E. Schlagenhauf - 8 U.S. Economic Growth Appears Solid This Year
by Kevin L. Kliesen - 9 CEO Succession at Rural Banks
by Drew Dahl & Mike Milchanowski
2018, Volume 26, Issue 1
- 1 Comparing Living Standards across U.S. Metro Areas: Which Ones Fared Well?
by James B. Bullard - 2 Why Is Inflation So Low?
by Hee Sung Kim & Juan M. Sanchez - 3 Measuring Labor Share in Developing Countries
by Brian Reinbold & Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria - 4 Many Americans Still Lack Retirement Savings
by YiLi Chien & Paul Morris - 5 The Relationship between Oil and Equities at the Zero Lower Bound
by Brian Reinbold & Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria - 6 Health Care Remains Important Job Engine in Eighth District
by Charles S. Gascon - 7 Income and Living Standards within the Eighth District
by Brian Reinbold & Yi Wen - 8 U.S. Economy Continues to Strengthen
by Kevin L. Kliesen - 9 Market Concentration and Its Impact on Community Banks
by Andrew P. Meyer
2017, Volume 25, Issue 4
- 1 A Year in Review
by James B. Bullard - 2 Shifting Times: The Evolution of the American Workplace
by Alexander Monge-Naranjo & Juan I. Vizcaino - 3 Boomers Have Played a Role in Changes in Productivity
by Guillaume Vandenbroucke - 4 Trade and Terror: The Impact of Terrorism on Developing Countries
by Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Javed Younas - 5 Looking for the Positives In Negative Interest Rates
by Brian Reinbold & Yi Wen - 6 Economy Bounces Back from Hurricanes
by Kevin L. Kliesen - 7 Advanced Manufacturing Is Vital across Nation, Including Eighth District
by Charles S. Gascon & Andrew Spewak - 8 First-Time Homebuyers Appear to Be Younger, Less Creditworthy in Eighth District
by Brian Reinbold & Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria - 9 How Fast Will Banks Adopt New Technology This Time?
by Drew Dahl & Andrew P. Meyer & Neil Wiggins
2017, Volume 25, Issue 3
- 1 Does Low Unemployment Signal a Meaningful Rise in Inflation?
by James B. Bullard - 2 Household Participation in Stock Market Varies Widely by State
by YiLi Chien & Paul Morris - 3 Workers Abroad Are Catching Up to U.S. Skill Levels
by Alexander Monge-Naranjo - 4 Quantitative Easing: How Well Does This Tool Work?
by Stephen D. Williamson - 5 Momentum Appears to Have Swung Upward for Economy
by Kevin L. Kliesen - 6 Making Ends Meet on the Federal Budget: Outlook and Challenges
by Fernando M. Martin - 7 Coal's Future Looks Uncertain as Rival Fuels Grow
by Jonas C. Crews & Charles S. Gascon - 8 Startups Create Many Jobs, but They Often Don't Last
by Maximiliano Dvorkin & Charles S. Gascon - 9 Another Way to Compare Banking Conditions in the U.S
by Andrew P. Meyer
2017, Volume 25, Issue 2
- 3-3 A Case for Shrinking the Fed's Balance Sheet
by James B. Bullard - 4-6 Does More Financial Development Lead to More or Less Volatility?
by Maria A. Arias & Yi Wen - 6-12 China's Economic Data: An Accurate Reflection, or Just Smoke and Mirrors?
by Michael T. Owyang & Hannah Shell - 13-15 Comparing Income, Education and Job Data for Immigrants vs. Those Born in U.S
by Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Guerrero Rodrigo - 16-18 A Short History of Prices, Inflation since the Founding of the U.S
by Fernando M. Martin - 19-19 Handle with Care: Report on GDP for First Quarter
by Kevin L. Kliesen - 20-21 \\"Banking Deserts\\" Become a Concern as Branches Dry Up
by Drew Dahl & Michelle Franke - 22-23 Labor Market Polarization: How Does the District Compare with the Nation?
by Maximiliano Dvorkin & Hannah Shell - 24-26 Growth in Tech Sector Returns to Glory Days of the 1990s
by Charles S. Gascon & Evan Karson
2017, Volume 25, Issue 1
- 1-3 A Look at Corporate Inversions, Inside and Out
by Michelle Clark Neely & Larry D. Sherrer - 3-3 The Policy Rule Debate: A Simpler Solution
by James B. Bullard - 4-5 Mixing the Melting Pot: The Impact of Immigration on Labor Markets
by Guillaume Vandenbroucke & Heting Zhu - 6-7 The Recovery Act of 2009 vs. FDR's New Deal: Which Was Bigger?
by William D. Dupor - 8-12 Financial Conditions: Do the Ups and Downs Affect the Rest of the Economy?
by Hee Sung Kim & Juan M. Sanchez - 13-13 Signals Are Mixed, but Optimism Is on the Rise
by Kevin L. Kliesen - 14-15 Slowdown in Productivity: State vs. National Trend
by YiLi Chien & Paul Morris - 16-17 After Years of Decline, Yields on U.S. Treasuries Rise
by Maria A. Arias & Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria - 18-19 Disability Rate Exceeds Nation's; Problem Is Worse in Rural Areas
by James D. Eubanks & David Wiczer - 20-22 Multifamily Housing Shows Strong Growth, Leading to Bubble Fears
by Charles S. Gascon & Joseph McGillicuddy
2016, Issue October
- 1-3 Unequal Degrees of Affluence: Racial and Ethnic Wealth Differences across Education Levels
by William R. Emmons & Lowell R. Ricketts - 3-3 Higher GDP Growth in the Long Run Requires Higher Productivity Growth
by James B. Bullard - 4-5 Q&A with President Bullard on New Approach to Projections
by James B. Bullard - 6-7 Breaking Down the Gender Wage Gap by Age and by Hours Worked
by Limor Golan & Andrés Hincapié - 8-13 Home Economics: The Changing Work Roles of Wives and Husbands
by Limor Golan & Usa Kerdnunvong - 14-15 Immigrants to the U.S.: Where They Are Coming from, and Where They Are Headed
by Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Guerrero Rodrigo - 16-18 Demographics Help Explain the Fall in the Labor Force Participation Rate
by Maria A. Arias & Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria - 19-19 After a Start That Was Lackluster, the Economy Improves
by Kevin L. Kliesen - 20-22 Evansville, Ind., Adapts As Manufacturing, Population Growth Slide
by Charles S. Gascon & Andrew Spewak
2016, Issue July
- 1-3 Scale Matters: Community Banks and Compliance Costs
by Drew Dahl & Andrew P. Meyer & Michelle Clark Neely - 3-3 The State of the Debate on \\"Too Big to Fail\\"
by James B. Bullard - 4-9 Neo-Fisherism: A Radical Idea, or the Most Obvious Solution to the Low-Inflation Problem?
by Stephen D. Williamson - 10-11 Gender Pay Gap May Be Linked to Flexible and Irregular Hours
by Maria E. Canon & Limor Golan - 14-15 Which Persists More from Generation to Generation—Income or Wealth?
by George-Levi Gayle & Andrés Hincapié - 16-18 District Households Buck the Trend to Pay Down Debt
by Helu Jiang & Juan M. Sanchez - 18-19 Government Spending Might Not Create Jobs Even during Recessions
by William D. Dupor & Guerrero Rodrigo - 19-19 Despite Weakness, Economic Expansion Marks Seven Years
by Kevin L. Kliesen - 20-23 Health Care, Hospitality and Retirees Keep Hot Springs Afloat
by Charles S. Gascon & Faisal Sohail
2016, Issue Jan
- 1-4 Focus on Low Real Interest Rate Might Be Misplaced
by Jonas C. Crews & Kevin L. Kliesen & Christopher J. Waller - 3-3 What Does Data Dependence Mean?
by James B. Bullard - 5-9 Labor Indicators: Some of Today's Trends Pre-Date the Great Recession
by Marianna Kudlyak & Juan M. Sanchez - 10-11 Rising Productivity, Declining Population Impact Russia's Economy
by Guillaume Vandenbroucke - 12-13 Where Did All the New Liquidity Go?
by Fernando M. Martin - 14-16 Unemployment by Industry: Duration Must Be Considered, Too
by YiLi Chien & Paul Morris - 17-17 Despite Crosscurrents, Economy Is Showing Signs of Strength
by Kevin L. Kliesen - 18-19 District's Patterns in Imports and Exports Sometimes Differ from Nation's
by Maximiliano Dvorkin & Hannah Shell - 20-22 Jefferson City, Mo., Facing Same Struggles As Other State Capitals
by Charles S. Gascon & Evan Karson
2016, Issue April
- 1-3 Tracking the U.S. Economy with Nowcasts
by Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael W. McCracken - 3-3 Inflation Expectations Are Important to Central Bankers, Too
by James B. Bullard - 4-5 Measuring Trends in Income Inequality
by Michael T. Owyang & Hannah Shell - 6-7 Many Countries Sink or Swim on Commodity Prices—and on Orders from China
by Alexander Monge-Naranjo & Faisal Sohail - 8-14 China's Rapid Rise: From Backward Agrarian Society to Industrial Powerhouse in Just 35 Years
by Yi Wen - 15-17 Interest Rate Control Is More Complicated Than You Thought
by Stephen D. Williamson - 18-19 Immigration Patterns in the District Differ in Some Ways from the Nation's
by Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Guerrero Rodrigo - 22-22 Some Sectors Are Strong in Cape Girardeau, but Recovery from Recession Remains Elusive
by Charles S. Gascon & Joseph McGillicuddy - 23-23 Modest Improvement in Economy Expected over Rest of the Year
by Usa Kerdnunvong & Kevin L. Kliesen
2015, Issue Oct
- 1-3 The Composition of Long-term Unemployment Is Changing toward Older Workers
by Alexander Monge-Naranjo & Faisal Sohail - 3-3 President's Message: Some Considerations for Dividend Payments to Fed Member Banks
by James B. Bullard - 4-9 Trapped: Few Developing Countries Can Climb the Economic Ladder or Stay There
by Maria A. Arias & Yi Wen - 10-11 Recovery from the Great Recession Has Varied around the World
by Maria A. Arias & Yi Wen - 12-13 Aging and the Economy: The Japanese Experience
by Maria E. Canon & Marianna Kudlyak & Marisa Reed - 14-15 Stimulus Spending Had Spillover Effects, Thanks to Commuters
by William D. Dupor - 16-19 Metro Profile: Jonesboro Outperforming Arkansas and Nation in Some Key Categories
by Charles S. Gascon & Michael R. Pakko - 20-21 District Overview: \\"Leaving the Nest\\" Is Easier in Arkansas than Elsewhere in the District and Nation
by Maria E. Canon & Charles S. Gascon - 22-22 National Overview: Growth Is Resilient in the Midst of Uncertainty
by Kevin L. Kliesen
2015, Issue July
- 1 Asset Bubbles: Detecting and Measuring Them Are Not Easy Tasks
by Silvio Contessi & Usa Kerdnunvong - 2 President's Message: Reassessing Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound
by James B. Bullard - 3 Lifetime Benefits of an Education Have Never Been So High
by Guillaume Vandenbroucke - 4 Oil Prices and Inflation Expectations: Is There a Link?
by Alejandro Badel & Joseph McGillicuddy - 5 Changes in Income Gaps Might Overstate Changes in Welfare Gaps
by Juan M. Sanchez & Lijun Zhu - 6 National Overview: The U.S. Economy Stumbles Out of the Gate—Again
by Kevin L. Kliesen - 7 District Overview: As in the Nation, New Jobs in the District Are Concentrated in Low-Paying Industries
by Maximiliano Dvorkin & Hannah Shell - 8 Metro Profile: Bowling Green, Ky.: Cars, College and Caves
by Georgette A Fernandez Laris & Charles S. Gascon - 9 States' Efforts To Curtail Unauthorized Immigration Draw More Attention
by Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Jonathan Munemo & Santiago Pinto
2015, Issue Jan
- 1-1 Liftoff: A Comparison of Two Normalization Cycles
by James B. Bullard - 1-1 National Overview: Pace of Growth Is Expected To Quicken
by Kevin L. Kliesen - 1-2 \\"Where's the Wage Pressure?\\"
by James D. Eubanks & David Wiczer - 1-2 Youth Labor Force Participation Continues To Fall, but It Might Be for a Good Reason
by Maria E. Canon & Marianna Kudlyak - 1-2 District Overview: Income Inequality Is Growing in the District, but Not as Fast as in the Nation
by Maximiliano Dvorkin & Hannah Shell - 1-2 Sovereign Debt Crisis in Europe Recalls the Lost Decade in Latin America
by Maria A. Arias & Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria - 1-2 Measuring Underground Economy Can Be Done, but It Is Difficult
by Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria - 1-3 Assessing the Health of the Labor Market: The Unemployment Rate vs. Other Indicators
by Maximiliano Dvorkin - 1-3 Faster Real GDP Growth during Recoveries Tends To Be Associated with Growth of Jobs in \\"Low-Paying\\" Industries
by Kevin L. Kliesen & Lowell R. Ricketts - 1-3 Metro Profile: A Tale of Four Cities: Widespread Growth in Northwest Arkansas
by Charles S. Gascon & Michael A. Varley