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The dynamic linkages of fiscal and current account deficits: New evidence from five highly indebted European countries accounting for regime shifts and asymmetries

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  • Trachanas, Emmanouil
  • Katrakilidis, Constantinos

Abstract

This article provides new empirical evidence on the long-term relationship between the fiscal and current account imbalances, of five European economies under financial market pressure and insolvency; Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. We attempt to re-evaluate the dynamic linkages between the twin-deficits allowing for the presence of structural breaks and asymmetries. The evidence is in favor of the “twin deficits hypothesis”. More insight is further provided through the magnitude and significance of the asymmetric linkages between the twin deficits in the long-run time horizon. Our findings indicate that fiscal deficit decreases have a greater impact on the current account deficit rather than the opposite.

Suggested Citation

  • Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "The dynamic linkages of fiscal and current account deficits: New evidence from five highly indebted European countries accounting for regime shifts and asymmetries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 502-510.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:31:y:2013:i:c:p:502-510
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.12.026
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    2. Veronika Šuliková & Anna Tykhonenko, 2017. "The Impact Of Public Debt On The Twin Imbalances In Europe: A Threshold Model," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, vol. 62(213), pages 27-44, April - J.
    3. Litsios, Ioannis & Pilbeam, Keith, 2017. "An empirical analysis of the nexus between investment, fiscal balances and current account balances in Greece, Portugal and Spain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 143-152.
    4. Wong Hock Tsen, 2014. "External Balance And Budget In Malaysia," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 10(2), pages 37-54.
    5. Augustine C. Arize & Ioannis N. Kallianotis & Scott Liu & John Malindretos & Alex Panayides, 2014. "National Debt and Its Effects on Several Other Variables: An Econometric Study of the United States," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(4), pages 98-113, October.
    6. Pilbeam, K. & Litsios, I., 2015. "An Empirical Analysis of the Nexus between Investment, Fiscal Balances and Current Account Balances in Greece, Portugal and Spain," Working Papers 15/18, Department of Economics, City University London.
    7. Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Gök, Barış & Akseki, Utku, 2015. "A nonlinear investigation of the twin deficits hypothesis over the business cycle: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 181-196.
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    10. Lukmanova, Elizaveta & Tondl, Gabriele, 2016. "Macroeconomic Imbalances and Business Cycle Synchronization. Why Common Economic Governance is Imperative for the Eurozone," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 5087, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    11. Islam, Roumeen, 2013. "Macroeconomic context and fiscal policy : Europe and Central Asia during 2000-2012," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6621, The World Bank.
    12. Samia OMRANE BELGUITH, 2016. "Twin deficit in MENA countries: an empirical investigation," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(60), pages 123-146, June.
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    14. Ahmad, Ahmad Hassan & Aworinde, Olalekan Bashir, 2016. "The role of structural breaks, nonlinearity and asymmetric adjustments in African bilateral real exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 144-159.
    15. Veronika Å uliková & Marianna SiniÄ Ã¡ková & Denis Horváth, 2014. "Twin Deficits in Small Open Baltic Economies," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(2), pages 227-239, March.
    16. António Afonso & Florence Huart & João Tovar Jalles & Piotr Stanek, 2018. "Twin Deficits Revisited: a role for fiscal institutions?," Working Papers REM 2018/31, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal deficit; Current account deficit; Twin deficits; Structural breaks; Asymmetric cointegration;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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