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Modeling twin deficit hypothesis with oil price volatility in African oil-producing countries

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  • Eregha, Perekunah B.
  • Aworinde, Olalekan B.
  • Vo, Xuan Vinh

Abstract

The study examines the dynamic connection between fiscal and current account deficits conditioned on oil price fluctuation in selected African oil-producing countries. Annual data for twelve African oil-producing countries for the period 1981–2018 are used. Using the Dynamic Fixed Effect and the Augmented Mean Group techniques due to cross-sectional dependence, results validate the twin deficits hypothesis for the selected African oil-producing countries. Panel data granger causality result also supports a bidirectional connection between the fiscal and the current account deficits. Thus, structural reforms are needed to spur national savings and diversify the export sectors of these countries. It is also imperative that positive oil price shocks are not assumed to be permanent shocks so as to smoothen consumption and implement a robust fiscal rule and framework for managing excess crude oil prices for stabilization.

Suggested Citation

  • Eregha, Perekunah B. & Aworinde, Olalekan B. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Modeling twin deficit hypothesis with oil price volatility in African oil-producing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:75:y:2022:i:c:s0301420721005195
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102512
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    Cited by:

    1. Abubakar, Attahir Babaji & Muhammad, Mansur & Mensah, Samuel, 2023. "Response of fiscal efforts to oil price dynamics," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
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    3. Ebi, Bassey Okon & Aladejare, Samson Adeniyi, 2022. "Oil Price Transmission, Deficit Financing and Capital Formation," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 56(1), pages 123-133.
    4. Mohammad Asif & Vishal Sharma & Vinay Joshi Chandniwala & Parvez Alam Khan & Syed Mohd Muneeb, 2023. "Modelling the Dynamic Linkage Amidst Energy Prices and Twin Deficit in India: Empirical Investigation within Linear and Nonlinear Framework," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-23, March.
    5. Shazia Kousar & Saeed Ahmad Sabir & Farhan Ahmed & Štefan Bojnec, 2022. "Climate Change, Exchange Rate, Twin Deficit, and Energy Inflation: Application of VAR Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-21, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic fixed effect; Augmented mean group; Twin-deficit hypothesis; Oil price volatility; Dynamic heterogeneous panel analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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