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Dynamics of fiscal and current account deficits in Thailand: an empirical investigation

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  • Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah
  • Evan Lau

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to contribute further on the twin deficits debate in a developing economy. Design/methodology/approach - The data for Thailand over three decades are used as a case study. Findings - The major findings are: first, a stable, long‐run equilibrium relationship between fiscal deficit, interest rate, exchange rate, and current account was found. Second, the causal relationship between the two deficits runs from fiscal deficit to current account deficit. This evidence is supportive of the twin deficits hypothesis. Further econometric analysis reveals that the two financial variables (interest rate and exchange rate) act as intermediating variables – that is an increased fiscal deficit causes interest rate to rise, and this in turn puts pressure on the exchange rate. The appreciation of the domestic currency causes a current account deficit. Originality/value - The paper is of value by showing both direct and indirect channels to uncover the twin deficits phenomena. Based on a persistent profile response, it was found that the adjustment process may take as long as a year to complete.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2007. "Dynamics of fiscal and current account deficits in Thailand: an empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(6), pages 454-475, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:34:y:2007:i:6:p:454-475
    DOI: 10.1108/01443580710830943
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cosimo Magazzino, 2021. "The twin deficits in the ASEAN countries," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 227-248, April.
    2. Syed Jawaid & Syed Raza, 2013. "Dynamics of Current Account Deficit: A Lesson from Pakistan," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 19(3), pages 357-366, February.
    3. E Lau & S Abu Mansor & C-H Puah, 2010. "Revival of the Twin Deficits in Asian Crisis-affected Countries," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 15(1), pages 29-54, March.
    4. Eregha, Perekunah B. & Aworinde, Olalekan B. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Modeling twin deficit hypothesis with oil price volatility in African oil-producing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    5. Simeon Coleman & Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2019. "Current account and structural change in European transition economies," Working Papers 2019/08, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    6. Bernardin Senadza & Godson Korbla Aloryito, 2016. "The twin deficits hypothesis: Evidence from Ghana," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 9(3), pages 55-62, December.
    7. Maran Marimuthu & Hanana Khan & Romana Bangash, 2021. "Reverse Causality between Fiscal and Current Account Deficits in ASEAN: Evidence from Panel Econometric Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-18, May.
    8. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Hamizun Bin Ismail, 2012. "The present value model and Thailand's current account balance," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 39(3), pages 337-355, December.
    9. Nazia Abdul Rehman & Musarrat Shamshir & Khurram Shakir, 2020. "Correlation of Macroeconomic Variables with Twin Deficit in Pakistan," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 16(1), pages 16-11.
    10. Wong Hock Tsen, 2014. "External Balance And Budget In Malaysia," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 10(2), pages 37-54.
    11. Evan Lau & Tuck Cheong Tang, 2009. "Twin deficits in Cambodia: Are there Reasons for Concern? An Empirical Study," Monash Economics Working Papers 11-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    12. Hasan, Syed Akif & Subhani, Muhammad Imtiaz & Osman, Ms. Amber, 2012. "Fiscal Deficit cannot be reduced by increasing Taxes (A point to ponder from Pakistan)," MPRA Paper 35681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Maran Marimuthu & Hanana Khan & Romana Bangash, 2021. "Is the Fiscal Deficit of ASEAN Alarming? Evidence from Fiscal Deficit Consequences and Contribution towards Sustainable Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-19, September.
    14. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Untangling the causal relationship between government budget and current account deficits in OECD countries: Evidence from bootstrap panel Granger causality," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 95-104.
    15. Misztal, Piotr, 2012. "The link between government budget and current account in the Baltic countries," MPRA Paper 40784, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Evan Lau & Tuck Cheong Tang, 2009. "Twin deficits in Cambodia: An Empirical Study," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2783-2794.
    17. Nikolina E. Kosteletou, 2013. "Financial Integration, Euro and the Twin Deficits of Southern Eurozone Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(2), pages 161-178, April.
    18. Hasanah, Erni Ummi & Sarungu, JJ. & Mulyanto, & Soesilo, AM. & Suparjito,, 2019. "The Effect of Intervening Variable towards Twin Deficit in Indonesia: The Application of Path Analysis," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 53(2), pages 177-184.
    19. Vickneswaran Anojan, 2018. "Tax Revenue, Total Expense, Gross Domestic Production and Budget Deficit: A Study in Sri Lanka," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 7(4), pages 1-17, November.
    20. Mossadak Anas, PhD researcher, 2013. "Twin deficits in Morocco: An empirical investigation," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 3(7), pages 160-172, July.
    21. Kalou, Sofia & Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2012. "The twin deficits hypothesis: Revisiting an EMU country," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 230-241.
    22. Nazia Abdul Rehman & Musarrat Shamshir & Khurram Shakir, 2020. "Correlation of Macroeconomic Variables with Twin Deficit in Pakistan," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16.
    23. Nurudeen Abu & Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal, 2020. "An Empirical Investigation of the Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Nigeria: Evidence from Cointegration Techniques," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(3), September.
    24. Piotr Bartkiewicz, 2020. "Quantitative Easing: New Normal or Emergency Measure?," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(3), September.
    25. Cosimo Magazzino, 2017. "Twin Deficits or Ricardian Equivalence? Empirical Evidence in the APEC Countries," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(10), pages 959-971, October.

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