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The twin deficits hypothesis: Revisiting an EMU country

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  • Kalou, Sofia
  • Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria

Abstract

We re-examine the issue of the twin deficits hypothesis since recent theoretical and empirical analysis suggests that this hypothesis is subject to structural shifts, the identification of which is very important for policymakers in order to take the correct decisions to overcome situations of economic turmoil. We utilise a different empirical approach and we extend the data sets. We use a multivariate Vector Error Correction framework including the endogenous determination of structural breaks, to determine the causal relation between the budget deficit and the current account deficit for Greece. The two deficits are found to be positively linked through the Current Account Targeting Hypothesis.

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  • Kalou, Sofia & Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2012. "The twin deficits hypothesis: Revisiting an EMU country," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 230-241.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:34:y:2012:i:2:p:230-241
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2011.06.002
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    4. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Untangling the causal relationship between government budget and current account deficits in OECD countries: Evidence from bootstrap panel Granger causality," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 95-104.
    5. Thompson, Alexi & Thompson, Henry, 2018. "The Exchange Rate Regime Switch and Current Account in Greece, 1976-2014," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 71(3), pages 371-386.
    6. António Afonso & José Carlos Coelho, 2021. "The Role of Fiscal Policies for External Imbalances: Evidence from the European Union," Working Papers REM 2021/0162, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    7. Gaysset, Isabelle & Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas & Neaime, Simon, 2019. "Twin deficits and fiscal spillovers in the EMU's periphery. A Keynesian perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 101-116.
    8. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Fiscal stance, foreign capital inflows and the behavior of current account in the Asian countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 523-549, February.
    9. Konstantinos P. Panousis & Minoas Koukouritakis, 2020. "Twin Deficits: Evidence From Portugal, Italy, Spain and Greece," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(5), pages 332-338, September.
    10. Samia OMRANE BELGUITH, 2016. "Twin deficit in MENA countries: an empirical investigation," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(60), pages 123-146, June.
    11. Veronika Å uliková & Marianna SiniÄ Ã¡ková & Denis Horváth, 2014. "Twin Deficits in Small Open Baltic Economies," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(2), pages 227-239, March.
    12. Ranjan Kumar Mohanty, 2019. "An Empirical Investigation of Twin Deficits Hypothesis: Evidence from India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(3), pages 579-601, September.
    13. António Afonso & Philemon Kwame Opoku, 2018. "The Relationship between Fiscal and Current Account Imbalances in OECD Economies," Working Papers REM 2018/61, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    14. Helmy, Heba E., 2018. "The twin deficit hypothesis in Egypt," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 328-349.
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    16. Hammad Manzoor & Muhammad Zeeshan Younas & Rashid Mehmood & Muhammad Ali Rizwan, 2019. "A Twin Deficit Hypothesis: The Case Study of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(3), pages 117-131, September.
    17. Mohanty, Ranjan Kumar & Sahoo, Biresh K., 2017. "Examining the Eco-Macroeconomic Performance Index of India: A Data Envelopment Analysis Approach," Working Papers 17/202, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    18. Wong Hock Tsen, 2014. "External Balance And Budget In Malaysia," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 10(2), pages 37-54.
    19. Soo Xin Lin & Jerome Kueh, 2019. "Determinants of Current Account Balance in Six ASEAN Countries: A Panel Analysis Approach," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(7), pages 129-129, July.
    20. Yusuf Ekrem Akbaş & Fuat Lebe, 2016. "Current Account Deficit, Budget Deficit and Savings Gap: Is the Twin or Triplet Deficit Hypothesis Valid in G7 Countries?," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(3), pages 271-286.
    21. José Carlos Coelho, 2020. "The relationship between budget deficit and external deficit: the case of Portugal," Working Papers REM 2020/0116, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Twin deficits; Structural breaks; Cointegration; Granger causality; Vector Error Correction model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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