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The Austrian current account deficit: Driven by twin deficits or by intertemporal expenditure allocation?

Author

Listed:
  • Sylvia Kaufmann

    (University of Vienna, Department of Economics, Hohenstaufengasse 9, A-1010 Vienna, and Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Analysis Division, Otto Wagner Platz 3, 1090 Vienna)

  • Georg Winckler

    (University of Vienna, Department of Economics, Hohenstaufengasse 9, A-1010 Vienna)

  • Johann Scharler

    (University of California - Davis, Department of Economics, One Shields Ave., Davis, CA 95616-8578)

Abstract

The evidence presented in the paper rejects the twin deficit hypothesis for the Austrian current account balance during the last two decades. The results are based on an estimate of a vector error correction model including quarterly data for the current account balance and potentially relevant variables driving its dynamics. We compute the variance decomposition of the current account's forecast error and its generalized impulse responses to shocks in the innovations of the system. The results in favor of intertemporal expenditure reallocation cannot be reproduced within a second analysis including the current account and a measure of net output, however. The estimated implicit current account balance, interpreted as the discounted expected change in future net output, does not follow the actual behaviour of the current account.

Suggested Citation

  • Sylvia Kaufmann & Georg Winckler & Johann Scharler, 2002. "The Austrian current account deficit: Driven by twin deficits or by intertemporal expenditure allocation?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 529-542.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:27:y:2002:i:3:p:529-542
    Note: received: June 1999/Final version received: March 2001
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmad Baharumshah & Evan Lau & Ahmed Khalid, 2006. "Testing Twin Deficits Hypothesis using VARs and Variance Decomposition," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 331-354.
    2. Paolo Bianchi & Bruno Deschamps & Khurshid M. Kiani, 2015. "Fiscal Balance and Current Account in Professional Forecasts," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 361-378, May.
    3. E Lau & S Abu Mansor & C-H Puah, 2010. "Revival of the Twin Deficits in Asian Crisis-affected Countries," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 15(1), pages 29-54, March.
    4. Bernardin Senadza & Godson Korbla Aloryito, 2016. "The twin deficits hypothesis: Evidence from Ghana," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 9(3), pages 55-62, December.
    5. Lau, E. & Baharumshah, A. Z., 2006. "Twin Deficits Hypothesis in SEACEN Countries: A Panel Data Analysis of Relationships between Public Budget and Current Account Deficits," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(2).
    6. Evan Lau & Tuck Cheong Tang, 2009. "Twin deficits in Cambodia: Are there Reasons for Concern? An Empirical Study," Monash Economics Working Papers 11-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    7. Misztal, Piotr, 2012. "The link between government budget and current account in the Baltic countries," MPRA Paper 40784, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Evan Lau & Tuck Cheong Tang, 2009. "Twin deficits in Cambodia: An Empirical Study," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2783-2794.
    9. Asrafuzzaman & Amit Roy & Sanat Das Gupta, 2013. "An Empirical Investigation of Budget and Trade Deficits: The Case of Bangladesh," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(3), pages 570-579.
    10. Nikolina E. Kosteletou, 2013. "Financial Integration, Euro and the Twin Deficits of Southern Eurozone Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(2), pages 161-178, April.
    11. Samia OMRANE BELGUITH, 2016. "Twin deficit in MENA countries: an empirical investigation," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(60), pages 123-146, June.
    12. repec:eme:jespps:jes-11-2016-0248 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Mossadak Anas, PhD researcher, 2013. "Twin deficits in Morocco: An empirical investigation," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 3(7), pages 160-172, July.
    14. Kalou, Sofia & Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2012. "The twin deficits hypothesis: Revisiting an EMU country," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 230-241.
    15. Demdoumi, Meriem, 2016. "La gestion structurelle des déficits jumeaux au Maroc et la recherche d’une stratégie d’équilibre
      [Structural management of twin deficits in Morocco and Finding an equilibrium strategy]
      ," MPRA Paper 71533, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    16. Puah, Chin-Hong & Lau, Evan & Tan, Kim Lee, 2006. "Budget-current account deficits nexus in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 37677, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Narayan, Seema, 2013. "A structural VAR model of the Fiji Islands," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 238-244.
    18. Chowdhury, Khorshed & Saleh, Ali Salman, 2007. "Testing the Keynesian Proposition of Twin Deficits in the Presence of Trade Liberalisation: Evidence from Sri Lanka after War: the case of a bridge too far?," Economics Working Papers wp07-09, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    19. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2005. "Budget and Current Account Deficits in SEACEN Countries: Evidence Based on the Panel Approach," International Finance 0504002, EconWPA.
    20. Ashima Goyal & Abhishek Kumar, 2017. "The Effect of oil shocks and cyclicality in hiding Indian twin deficits," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2017-005, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    21. Ashima Goyal & Abhishek Kumar, 2018. "The effect of oil shocks and cyclicality in hiding Indian twin deficits," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 27-45, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    current account · Mundell-Fleming model · Ricardian equivalence · vector error correction and vector autoregression · variance decomposition · impulse response analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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