The Twin Deficits in Selected Central and Eastern European Economies: Bounds Testing Approach with Causality Analysis
The aim of our paper is to explore empirically the existence of the long-run relationship and the direction of causality between the budget and current account deficits for some selected Central and Eastern European economies. Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Serbia and Slovenia are the sample countries. The empirical analysis hinges on the Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001) bounds testing approach to co-integration and Granger non-causality. No evidence in favor of twin deficits hypothesis has been obtained for the selected countries, except for Bulgaria, as the results support non-causality.
Volume (Year): (2014)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Casa Academiei, Calea 13, Septembrie nr.13, sector 5, Bucureşti 761172|
Phone: 004 021 3188148
Fax: 004 021 3188148
Web page: http://www.ipe.ro/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michel Normandin, 1996.
"Budget Deficit Persistence and the Twin Deficits Hypothesis,"
- Normandin, Michel, 1999. "Budget deficit persistence and the twin deficits hypothesis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 171-193, October.
- Michel Normandin, 1994. "Budget Deficit Persistence and the Twin Deficits Hypothesis," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 31, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
- Gancho Todorov Ganchev, 2010. "The twin deficit hypothesis: the case of Bulgaria," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 34(4), pages 357-377.
- Alberto Bagnai, 2010. "Twin deficits in CEEC economies: evidence from panel unit root tests," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1071-1081.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Daly, Vince & Siddiki, Jalal Uddin, 2007.
"The twin deficits in OECD countries: cointegration analysis with regime shifts,"
Economics Discussion Papers
2007-5, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
- Vince Daly & Jalal Siddiki, 2009. "The twin deficits in OECD countries: cointegration analysis with regime shifts," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(11), pages 1155-1164.
- Marinheiro, Carlos Fonseca, 2008.
"Ricardian equivalence, twin deficits, and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in Egypt,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1041-1056.
- Carlos Marinheiro, 2006. "Ricardian Equivalence, Twin Deficits, and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in Egypt," GEMF Working Papers 2006-07, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
- Cristian SOCOL & Radu SOVIANI, 2010. "Experiences of the Large Fiscal Adjustments in EU. Romania’s Case," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(12(553)), pages 21-28, December.
- Alberto Bagnai, 2006. "Structural breaks and the twin deficits hypothesis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 137-155, November.
- Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980.
"Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-29, June.
- Selahattin Dibooglu, 1995.
"Accounting for U.S. Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Investigation,"
- Selahattin Dibooglu, 1997. "Accounting for US current account deficits: an empirical investigation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 787-793.
- Nazma Latif-Zaman & Maria N. DaCosta, 1990. "The Budget Deficit and the Trade Deficit: Insights into This Relationship," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 349-354, Oct-Dec.
- Pelinescu, Elena, 2013. "The Mechanisms of Arrears in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 223-239, June.
- Zaman, Constantin, 2011. "Assessing the Sustainability of Public Finances in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 106-115, June.
- Jan Svejnar, 2001.
"Transition Economies: Performances and Challenges,"
William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series
415, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Rosenswieg, Jeffrey A & Tallman, Ellis W, 1993.
"Fiscal Policy and Trade Adjustment: Are the Deficits Really Twins?,"
Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(4), pages 580-94, October.
- Jeffrey A. Rosensweig & Ellis W. Tallman, 1991. "Fiscal policy and trade adjustment: are the deficits really twins?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 91-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Soyoung Kim & Nouriel Roubini, 2004.
"Twin Deficit or Twin Divergence? Fiscal Policy, Current Account, and Real Exchange Rate in the US,"
Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings
271, Econometric Society.
- Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2008. "Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the U.S," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 362-383, March.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Christophe Rault & António Afonso, 2009.
"Bootstrap panel granger-causality between government budget and external deficits for the EU,"
AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1027-1034.
- António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2009. "Bootstrap Panel Granger-Causality between Government Budget and External Deficits for the EU," CESifo Working Paper Series 2581, CESifo Group Munich.
- António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2009. "Bootstrap Panel Granger-Causality Between Government Budget and External Deficits for the EU," Working Papers Department of Economics 2009/02, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- Aristovnik, Aleksander, 2006.
"The Determinants & Excessiveness of Current Account Deficits in Eastern Europe & the Former Soviet Union,"
483, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Aleksander Aristovnik, 2006. "The Determinants & Excessiveness of Current Account Deficits in Eastern Europe & the Former Soviet Union," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp827, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- George Vamvoukas, 1999. "The twin deficits phenomenon: evidence from Greece," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 1093-1100.
- Kevin Grier & Haichun Ye, 2009. "Twin Sons Of Different Mothers: The Long And The Short Of The Twin Deficits Debate," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(4), pages 625-638, October.
- Salvatore, Dominick, 2006. "Twin deficits in the G-7 countries and global structural imbalances," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 701-712, September.
- Papadogonas, Theodore & Stournaras, Yannis, 2006. "Twin deficits and financial integration in EU member-states," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 595-602, July.
- Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2009. "Structural breaks and the twin deficits hypothesis: Evidence from East Asian countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2517-2524.
- Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Ghazi Shukur, 2002. "Multivariate-based causality tests of twin deficits in the US," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 817-824.
- Enders, Walter & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1990. "Current Account and Budget Deficits: Twins or Distant Cousins?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 373-81, August.
- Aleksander Aristovnik, 2005. "Twin Deficits Hypothesis And Horioka-Feldstein Puzzle In Transition Economies," International Finance 0510020, EconWPA.
- Anoruo, Emmanuel & Ramchander, Sanjay, 1998. "Current account and fiscal deficits: Evidence from five developing economies of Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 487-501.
- Chul-Hwan Kim & Donggeun Kim, 2006. "Does Korea have twin deficits?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(10), pages 675-680.
- Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle and Twin Deficits in Selected Countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 135-152, June.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, May.
- Gordon, Robert J., 1986. "U. S. Fiscal Deficits and the World Imbalance of Payments," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 27(Special I), pages 7-41, January.
- M. Faizul Islam, 1998. "Brazil's twin deficits: An empirical examination," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(2), pages 121-128, June.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Herrmann, Sabine & Jochem, Axel, 2005. "Determinants of current account developments in the central and east European EU member states - consequences for the enlargement of the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,32, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Kearney, Colm & Monadjemi, Mehdi, 1990. "Fiscal policy and current account performance: International evidence on the twin deficits," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 197-219.
- Ketenci, Natalya & Uz, Idil, 2010. "Determinants of current account in the EU: the relation between internal and external balances in the new members," MPRA Paper 27466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Salih Turan Katırcıoglu & Sami Fethı & Meryem Duygun Fethı, 2009. "Twin deficits phenomenon in small islands: an empirical investigation by panel data analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(15), pages 1569-1573.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2014:i:2:p:141-160. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Corina Saman)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.