The Budget Deficit and the Trade Deficit: Insights into This Relationship
This paper addresses the issue of concomitant high budget and trade deficits in the United States. Is it just a coincidence or is there any systematic relationship? The paper employs a bi-error criterion with quarterly data for the U.S. to determine whether a causal relationship exists between trade deficit and budget deficit. The empirical analysis indicate that the trade and budget deficit are related and also finds support for the conventional prpoposition that high budget deficits have caused high trade deficits. However, results do not suggest any feed back from trade to budget deficit. Consequently, budget deficit plays an important role in the budget-trade relationship.
Volume (Year): 16 (1990)
Issue (Month): 4 (Oct-Dec)
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- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September.
- Michael Hutchison & Charles Pigott, 1984. "Budget deficits, exchange rates and the current account: theory and U. S. evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Fall, pages 5-25.
- Cebula, Richard J, 1991. "Federal Government Budget Deficits and Interest Rates: Reply," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 46(2), pages 331-34.
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