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On the Causality Between Saving and Growth: Long- and Short-Run Dynamics and Country Heterogeneity

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  • Andersson, Björn

    (Department of Economics)

Abstract

The temporal interdependence between saving and output has been in focus in a number of recent empirical studies. Results from these studies have compelled some authors to question the traditional notion of a causal chain where saving leads growth through capital accumulation. This paper contributes to this literature. As opposed to the previous studies, which have mainly utilised panel-estimation methods, the tests of causal chains here are carried out in time-series settings. Saving and GDP are estimated in bivariate vector autoregressive or vector error-correction models for Sweden, UK, and USA, and tests of Granger non-causality are performed within the estimated systems. The main results show that the causal chains linking saving and output differ across countries, and also that causality associated with adjustments to long-run relations might go in different directions than causality associated with short-term disturbances.

Suggested Citation

  • Andersson, Björn, 1999. "On the Causality Between Saving and Growth: Long- and Short-Run Dynamics and Country Heterogeneity," Working Paper Series 1999:18, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:1999_018
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    Cited by:

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    3. Noam Gruber, 2023. "A relative answer to the growth–saving puzzle," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 139-171, August.
    4. Gruber, Noam, 2018. "Keeping up with the Zhangs: Relative income and wealth, and household saving behavior," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 77-95.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Saving; growth; Granger-causality; cointegration; VAR; VECM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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