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Growth, Savings, Financial Markets and Markov Switching Regimes

  • Jacobson, Tor

    ()

    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Lindh, Thomas

    (The Swedish Council for Research in the Humanities and Social Sciences (HSFR))

  • Warne, Anders

    ()

    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

We report evidence that the relation between the financial-sector share, private saving, and growth in the United States in 1948-96 is characterized by several regime shifts. The finding is based on vector autoregressions on quarterly data that allow for Markov switching regimes. The evidence may be interpreted as support for a hypothesis that the relation between financial development and growth evolves in a stepwise fashion. Theoretical models in which structural financial developments entail fixed costs imply such stepwise patterns. The estimated variable relations are roughly consistent with the patterns to be expected from such models, although our data do not admit definite conclusions. The timing of the shifts coincides with changes in regulation and in the financial-market structure.

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Paper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 69.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 01 Sep 1998
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 2002, pages 241-259.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0069
Contact details of provider: Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: 08 - 787 00 00
Fax: 08-21 05 31
Web page: http://www.riksbank.com/
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  1. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "Specification testing in Markov-switching time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 127-157, January.
  2. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 609, The World Bank.
  3. Acemoglu, Daron & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1996. "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1426, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Bencivenga, Valerie R & Smith, Bruce D, 1991. "Financial Intermediation and Endogenous Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 195-209, April.
  5. Greenwood, J. & Jovanovic, B., 1988. "Financial Development, Growth, And The Distribution Of Income," RCER Working Papers 131, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  6. Jung, Woo S, 1986. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: International Evidence," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(2), pages 333-46, January.
  7. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S61-82, Suppl. De.
  8. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
  9. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1994. "Risk-Taking, Global Diversification, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1310-29, December.
  10. Michael B. Devereux & Gregor W. Smith, 1991. "International Risk Sharing and Economic Growth," Working Papers 829, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  11. King, Robert G & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 717-37, August.
  12. Saint-Paul, G., 1990. "Technological Choice, Financial Markets and Economic Development," DELTA Working Papers 90-30, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  13. Panicos O. Demetriades & Philip Arestis, 1996. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Assessing the Evidence," Keele Department of Economics Discussion Papers (1995-2001) 96/16, Department of Economics, Keele University.
  14. Pagano, Marco, 1993. "Financial markets and growth: An overview," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 613-622, April.
  15. Saul B. Klaman, 1961. "The Postwar Residential Mortgage Market," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number klam61-1, May.
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