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Efficient Tests of Long-Run Causation in Trivariate VAR Processes with a Rolling Window Study of the Money-Income Relationship

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  • Jonathan B. Hill

    (Florida International University)

Abstract

This paper develops a simple sequential multiple horizon non-causation test strategy for trivariate VAR models (with one auxiliary variable). We apply the test strategy to a rolling window study of money supply and real income, with the price of oil, the unemployment rate and the spread between the Treasury bill and commercial paper rates as auxiliary processes. Ours is the first study to control simultaneously for common stochastic trends, sensitivity of test statistics to the chosen sample period, null hypothesis over-rejection, sequential test size bounds, and the possibility of causal delays. Evidence suggests highly significant direct or indirect causality from M1 to real income, in particular through the unemployment rate and M2 once we control for cointegration.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan B. Hill, 2004. "Efficient Tests of Long-Run Causation in Trivariate VAR Processes with a Rolling Window Study of the Money-Income Relationship," Macroeconomics 0407013, EconWPA, revised 15 Feb 2006.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0407013 Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 51
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Deborah Gefang, 2012. "Money‐output Causality Revisited – A Bayesian Logistic Smooth Transition VECM Perspective," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(1), pages 131-151, February.
    2. Laih, Yih-Wenn, 2014. "Measuring rank correlation coefficients between financial time series: A GARCH-copula based sequence alignment algorithm," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 232(2), pages 375-382.
    3. repec:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:74-81 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Jonathan B. Hill, 2005. "Causation Delays and Causal Neutralization up to Three Steps Ahead: The Money-Output Relationship Revisited," Econometrics 0503016, EconWPA, revised 23 Mar 2005.
    5. Al-Sadoon, Majid M., 2014. "Geometric and long run aspects of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P3), pages 558-568.
    6. Amanjot SINGH & Parneet KAUR, 2015. "Stock Market Linkages: Evidence From the US, China and India During the Subprime Crisis," Timisoara Journal of Economics and Business, West University of Timisoara, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 8(1), pages 137-162, June.
    7. Urmee Khan & Robert Lieli, 2016. "Information Flow Between Prediction Markets, Polls and Media: Evidence from the 2008 Presidential Primaries," Working Papers 201610, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    8. repec:kap:iecepo:v:14:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10368-016-0355-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Ghysels, Eric & Hill, Jonathan B. & Motegi, Kaiji, 2016. "Testing for Granger causality with mixed frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 207-230.
    10. Serhan Cevik & Katerina Teksoz, 2014. "Hitchhiker's guide to inflation in Libya," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21.
    11. Mounir Belloumi & Atef Saad Alshehry, 2015. "Sustainable Energy Development in Saudi Arabia," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(5), pages 1-18, April.
    12. Salamaliki, Paraskevi K. & Venetis, Ioannis A., 2013. "Energy consumption and real GDP in G-7: Multi-horizon causality testing in the presence of capital stock," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 108-121.
    13. Paraskevi Salamaliki & Ioannis Venetis & Nicholas Giannakopoulos, 2013. "The causal relationship between female labor supply and fertility in the USA: updated evidence via a time series multi-horizon approach," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 109-145, January.
    14. Urmee Khan & Robert Lieli, 2017. "Information Flow Between Prediction Markets, Polls and Media: Evidence from the 2008 Presidential Primaries," Working Papers 201711, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    15. Al-Sadoon, M.M., 2009. "Causality Along Subspaces: Theory," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0919, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    16. Erik Alencar de Figueiredo & Claudio Shikida & Ari Francisco Araújo Jr, 2013. "Monetary Policy, Output and Prices- Peláezs Contributions and a Sequential Multiple-horizon Non-causation Test for the period 1861-1970," Série Textos para Discussão (Working Papers) 20, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia - PPGE, Universidade Federal da Paraíba.
    17. Bampinas Georgios & Panagiotidis Theodore, 2015. "On the relationship between oil and gold before and after financial crisis: linear, nonlinear and time-varying causality testing," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(5), pages 657-668, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    multiple horizon causality; Wald tests; parametric bootstrap; money-income causality; rolling windows; cointegration;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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