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Efficient Tests of Long-Run Causation in Trivariate VAR Processes with a Rolling Window Study of the Money-Income Relationship

  • Jonathan B. Hill

    (Florida International University)

This paper develops a simple sequential multiple horizon non-causation test strategy for trivariate VAR models (with one auxiliary variable). We apply the test strategy to a rolling window study of money supply and real income, with the price of oil, the unemployment rate and the spread between the Treasury bill and commercial paper rates as auxiliary processes. Ours is the first study to control simultaneously for common stochastic trends, sensitivity of test statistics to the chosen sample period, null hypothesis over-rejection, sequential test size bounds, and the possibility of causal delays. Evidence suggests highly significant direct or indirect causality from M1 to real income, in particular through the unemployment rate and M2 once we control for cointegration.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0407013.

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Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: 15 Jul 2004
Date of revision: 17 May 2005
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0407013
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 51
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  16. Swanson, N.R. & Ozyildirim, A. & Pisu, M., 1996. "A Comparison of Alternatove causality and Predictive Accuracy Tests in the presence of Integrated and Co-integrated Economic Variables," Papers 4-96-4, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
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  25. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  26. Renault, E. & Szafarz, A., 1991. "True Versus Spurious Instantaneous Causality," Papers 9103, Universite Libre de Bruxelles - C.E.M.E..
  27. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1989. "Interpreting the evidence on money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 161-181, January.
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  30. Patrick J. Coe & James M. Nason, 2004. "Long-run monetary neutrality and long-horizon regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 355-373.
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