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Long-run monetary neutrality and long-horizon regressions


  • Patrick J. Coe

    (Department of Economics, University of Calgary, Canada)

  • James M. Nason

    (Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, USA)


A prominent test of long-run monetary neutrality (LRMN) involves regressing long-horizon output growth on long-horizon money growth. We obtain limited support for LRMN with this test in long-annual Australian, Canadian, UK and US samples. Although empirical confidence intervals yield evidence in favour of LRMN, Monte Carlo experiments reveal the power of this test is near its size. Thus, this test is unlikely to detect important deviations from LRMN. These problems arise because the long-horizon regression test of LRMN relies on estimates of the covariance of long-horizon output growth and long-horizon money growth. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick J. Coe & James M. Nason, 2004. "Long-run monetary neutrality and long-horizon regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 355-373.
  • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:19:y:2004:i:3:p:355-373
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.749

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Joakim Westerlund & Mauro Costantini, 2009. "Panel cointegration and the neutrality of money," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 1-26, February.
    2. Gary L. Shelley & Frederick H. Wallace, 2004. "Long Run Effects of Money on Real Consumption and Investment in the U.S," Macroeconomics 0404007, EconWPA, revised 06 Apr 2004.
    3. Becker, Sascha O. & Hoffmann, Mathias, 2006. "Intra- and international risk-sharing in the short run and the long run," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 777-806, April.
    4. Serletis, Apostolos & Gogas, Periklis, 2004. "Long-horizon regression tests of the theory of purchasing power parity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1961-1985, August.
    5. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2007:i:64:p:1-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Lastrapes, William D. & Potts, Todd B., 2006. "Durable goods and the forward-looking theory of consumption: Estimates implied by the dynamic effects of money," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1409-1430, August.
    7. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2007. "Evidence of the Long-Run Neutrality of Money: The Case of South Korea and Taiwan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(64), pages 1-18.
    8. Frederick H. Wallace & Gary L. Shelley, 2004. "Long Run Neutrality and Superneutrality of Money: Aggregate and Sectoral Tests for Nicaragua," Macroeconomics 0402004, EconWPA.
    9. Wallace, Frederick H. & Shelley, Gary L., 2006. "An alternative test of purchasing power parity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 177-183, August.
    10. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2010. "Spurious Long-Horizon Regression in Econometrics," Working Papers 2010-06, Banco de México.
    11. Jonathan B. Hill, 2007. "Efficient tests of long-run causation in trivariate VAR processes with a rolling window study of the money-income relationship," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 747-765.
    12. Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel, 2008. "Spurious Regression," MPRA Paper 59008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel & Noriega, Antonio E., 2015. "Long-run monetary neutrality under stochastic and deterministic trends," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 372-382.
    14. Shiu-Sheng Chen & Yu-Hsi Chou, 2010. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence from Long-Horizon Regression Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(1), pages 63-88, February.

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