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Long Run Effects of Money on Real Consumption and Investment in the U.S

  • Gary L. Shelley

    (East Tennesee State University)

  • Frederick H. Wallace

    (Universidad de Quintana Roo)

This paper tests for long run effects of money on real expenditures in the U.S. over the 1959-2002 period. Real consumption and investment expenditures, as well as their broadly defined components, are examined. We also test for effects of money on long run reallocations of consumption expenditures among durables, nondurables, and services. The time series characteristics of each variable are rigorously investigated. This is followed by application of the long run neutrality test, introduced by Fisher and Seater (1993), to each real expenditures series. Results support long run neutrality of both M2 and M3 with respect to real expenditures for all examined levels of data aggregation.

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File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/mac/papers/0404/0404007.pdf
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0404007.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 06 Apr 2004
Date of revision: 06 Apr 2004
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0404007
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 29
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org

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  1. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(2), pages 309-340.
  2. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
  4. Claudio Raddatz & Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Monetary Policy and Sectoral Shocks: Did the FED react properly to the High-Tech Crisis?," NBER Working Papers 9835, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  6. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 121-184 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Olekalns, Nilss, 1996. "Some further evidence on the long-run neutrality of money," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 393-398, March.
  8. Spencer Dale & Andrew Haldane, 1993. "Interest rates and the channels of monetary transmission: some sectoral estimates," Bank of England working papers 18, Bank of England.
  9. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," CEPR Discussion Papers 1131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Gerald Carlino & Robert Defina, 1998. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 572-587, November.
  11. Patrick J. Coe & James M. Nason, 2004. "Long-run monetary neutrality and long-horizon regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 355-373.
  12. Boschen, John F & Otrok, Christopher M, 1994. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1470-73, December.
  13. Coe, Patrick J. & Nason, James M., 2003. "The long-horizon regression approach to monetary neutrality: how should the evidence be interpreted?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 351-356, March.
  14. Gerald A. Carlino & Robert H. DeFina, 1997. "The differential regional effects of monetary policy: evidence from the U.S. States," Working Papers 97-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  15. Joe Ganley & Chris Salmon, 1997. "The Industrial Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks: Some Stylised Facts," Bank of England working papers 68, Bank of England.
  16. Gary L. Shelley & Frederick H. Wallace, 2004. "Testing for Long Run Neutrality of Money in Mexico," Macroeconomics 0402003, EconWPA.
  17. repec:oup:restud:v:61:y:1994:i:4:p:631-53 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Fisher, Mark E & Seater, John J, 1993. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 402-15, June.
  19. James B. Bullard, 1999. "Testing long-run monetary neutrality propositions: lessons from the recent research," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 57-77.
  20. Garrett, Thomas A., 2003. "Aggregated versus disaggregated data in regression analysis: implications for inference," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 61-65, October.
  21. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1990. "New Evidence on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 149-214.
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