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Interest rates and the channels of monetary transmission: Some sectoral estimates

  • Dale, Spencer
  • Haldane, Andrew G.

The monetary transmission mechanism describes the channels through which changes in monetary policy affect the policy target, price inflation. Understanding the transmission mechanism is thus central to the successful conduct of monetary policy. This paper uses a Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) methodology to uncover a number of stylised features of the monetary transmission process in the UK. In particular, close attention is paid to the role played by money and credit as intermediate channels. The possibility that the transmission mechanism may differ across sectors is allowed for by estimating separate VARs for the personal and corporate sectors. Three policy conclusions emerge. First, as suggested by Classical Theory, monetary policy is output neutral over the longer term. Second, the lags between changes in monetary policy and its effect upon prices are lengthy (at least 18 months). And third, that aggregate measures of money and credit may provide blurred signals of the impact of monetary policy in final variables. Sectoral measures of bank deposits (for companies) and bank credit (for persons) provide the more timely intermediate indicators.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 39 (1995)
Issue (Month): 9 (December)
Pages: 1611-1626

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:39:y:1995:i:9:p:1611-1626
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer

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  1. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  2. Ben Bernanke, 1990. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission," NBER Working Papers 3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 250-57, May.
  4. Berger, Allen N & Udell, Gregory F, 1992. "Some Evidence on the Empirical Significance of Credit Rationing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 1047-77, October.
  5. Anil K Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein & David W. Wilcox, 1992. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence From the Composition of External Finance," NBER Working Papers 4015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Dale, Spencer & Haldane, Andrew G, 1998. "Interest Rate Control in a Model of Monetary Policy," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 66(3), pages 354-75, June.
  7. Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1992. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," Working Papers 92-08, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  8. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H, 1972. "Money, Debt, and Economic Activity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(5), pages 951-77, Sept.-Oct.
  9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  10. King, Stephen R, 1986. "Monetary Transmission: Through Bank Loans or Bank Liabilities?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 290-303, August.
  11. Mark L. Gertler, 1988. "Financial Structure and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Overview," NBER Working Papers 2559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1990. "New Evidence on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 149-214.
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