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Monetary policy, credit and aggregate supply: the evidence from Italy

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  • Riccardo Fiorentini
  • Roberto Tamborini

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Abstract

type="main" xml:lang="en"> This paper concerns theory and evidence of the monetary transmission mechanisms. Current research has deeply investigated factors, such as dependence of firms on bank credit, that amplify the impact of monetary policy impulses on aggregate demand exerting strong but temporary effects on output and employment. We present an intertemporal macroeconomic equilibrium model of a competitive economy where current production is financed by bank credit, and then we use it to identify supply–side effects of the credit transmission mechanism in data drawn from the Italian economy. We find evidence that the ‘credit variables’ identified by the model – the overnight rate as a proxy of monetary policy and a measure of credit risk – have permanent effects on employment and output by altering credit supply conditions to firms. To save on space, mathematical proofs, statistical tests and data sources have been gathered in two separate appendices that can be examined on request. (J.E.L.: E2, E5).
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Suggested Citation

  • Riccardo Fiorentini & Roberto Tamborini, 1998. "Monetary policy, credit and aggregate supply: the evidence from Italy," Department of Economics Working Papers 9807, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
  • Handle: RePEc:trn:utwpde:9807
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    Cited by:

    1. Sean Holly & Emiliano Santoro, 2007. "Financial Fragility, Heterogeneous Firms and the Cross Section of the Business Cycle," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 96, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    2. Guisan, M.Carmen & Aguayo, Eva, 2002. "Employment and Regional Development in Italy," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(1), pages 41-72.
    3. Giuliana Passamani & Roberto Tamborini, 2006. "Monetary policy through the �credit-cost channel�. Italy and Germany," Department of Economics Working Papers 0609, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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