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Monetary Policy without Interest Rates: Evidence from France's Golden Age (1948 to 1973) Using a Narrative Approach

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  • Eric Monnet

Abstract

Central banking in France from 1948 to 1973 was a paradigmatic example of a policy that relied on quantities rather than interest rates. Standard SVAR analyses support the common view that monetary policy was ineffective during this period. However, this approach fails to identify the stance of monetary policy since it does not account for the specificity of quantitative controls on money and credit. An alternative identification strategy based on a narrative approach suggests that monetary policy shocks had strong and lasting effects in the conventional direction and accounted for nearly half of the variance in output and price levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Monnet, 2014. "Monetary Policy without Interest Rates: Evidence from France's Golden Age (1948 to 1973) Using a Narrative Approach," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 137-169, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:6:y:2014:i:4:p:137-69
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.6.4.137
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bordo & Pierre Siklos, 2017. "Central Banks: Evolution and Innovation in Historical Perspective," Economics Working Papers 17105, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    2. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 213-263.
    3. David Aikman & Oliver Bush & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "Monetary Versus Macroprudential Policies: Causal Impacts of Interest Rates and Credit Controls in the Era of the UK Radcliffe Report," NBER Working Papers 22380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Björn Richter & Moritz Schularick & Ilhyock Shim, 2018. "The Costs of Macroprudential Policy," NBER Working Papers 24989, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Jalil, Andrew & Rua, Gisela, 2015. "Inflation Expectations and Recovery from the Depression in 1933: Evidence from the Narrative Record," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
    6. Guillaume Bazot & Michael D. Bordo & Eric Monnet, 2014. "The Price of Stability: The balance sheet policy of the Banque de France and the Gold Standard (1880-1914)," NBER Working Papers 20554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Bignon, Vincent & Flandreau, Marc, 2018. "The Other Way: A Narrative History of the Bank of France," CEPR Discussion Papers 13138, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Eric Monnet & Damien Puy, 2016. "Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization?," IMF Working Papers 16/54, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Bazot, Guillaume & Bordo, Michael D. & Monnet, Eric, 2016. "International shocks and the balance sheet of the Bank of France under the classical gold standard," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 87-107.
    10. Gianni Toniolo & Eugene N. White, 2015. "The Evolution of the Financial Stability Mandate: From Its Origins to the Present Day," NBER Working Papers 20844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Jalil, Andrew J. & Rua, Gisela, 2016. "Inflation expectations and recovery in spring 1933," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 26-50.
    12. Björn Richter & Moritz Schularick & Ilhyock Shim, 2018. "The macroeconomic effects of macroprudential policy," BIS Working Papers 740, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Turalay Kenç, 2016. "Macroprudential regulation: history, theory and policy," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential policy, volume 86, pages 1-15 Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

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