IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aejmac/v6y2014i4p137-69.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Monetary Policy without Interest Rates: Evidence from France's Golden Age (1948 to 1973) Using a Narrative Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Eric Monnet

Abstract

Central banking in France from 1948 to 1973 was a paradigmatic example of a policy that relied on quantities rather than interest rates. Standard SVAR analyses support the common view that monetary policy was ineffective during this period. However, this approach fails to identify the stance of monetary policy since it does not account for the specificity of quantitative controls on money and credit. An alternative identification strategy based on a narrative approach suggests that monetary policy shocks had strong and lasting effects in the conventional direction and accounted for nearly half of the variance in output and price levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Monnet, 2014. "Monetary Policy without Interest Rates: Evidence from France's Golden Age (1948 to 1973) Using a Narrative Approach," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 137-169, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:6:y:2014:i:4:p:137-69
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.6.4.137
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/mac.6.4.137
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/aej/mac/data/0604/2012-0255_data.zip
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/aej/mac/app/0604/2012-0255_app.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/aej/mac/ds/0604/2012-0255_ds.zip
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. De Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet, 1997. "Monetary policy during transition : an overview," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1706, The World Bank.
    2. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2004. "A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1055-1084, September.
    3. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
    4. Martin L. Weitzman, 1974. "Prices vs. Quantities," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(4), pages 477-491.
    5. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 309-340.
    6. Leeper, Eric M. & Gordon, David B., 1992. "In search of the liquidity effect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 341-369, June.
    7. Foreman-Peck, James & Kling, Gerhard, 2008. "European business cycles and economic policy, 1945-2007," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH wp08-13, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    8. Mehrotra, Aaron N., 2007. "Exchange and interest rate channels during a deflationary era--Evidence from Japan, Hong Kong and China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 188-210, March.
    9. Leeper, Eric M., 1997. "Narrative and VAR approaches to monetary policy: Common identification problems," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 641-657, December.
    10. Mr. Christopher W. Crowe & Mr. S. Mahdi Barakchian, 2010. "Monetary Policy Matters: New Evidence Basedon a New Shock Measure," IMF Working Papers 2010/230, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902.
    12. Carmen M. Reinhart & M. Belen Sbrancia1, 2015. "The liquidation of government debt," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 291-333.
    13. Johnson, Omotunde E G, 1974. "Credit Controls as Instruments of Development Policy in the Light of Economic Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 6(1), pages 85-99, February.
    14. Catherine Bruneau & Olivier De Bandt, 1999. "La modélisation Var "structurel" : application à la politique monétaire en France," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 137(1), pages 67-94.
    15. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    16. Broadberry,Stephen & O'Rourke,Kevin H., 2010. "The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521882033.
    17. Bordo, Michael D. & Schwartz, Anna J., 1999. "Monetary policy regimes and economic performance: The historical record," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 149-234, Elsevier.
    18. van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1983. "Credit policy, inflation and growth in a financially repressed economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1-2), pages 45-65.
    19. Olivier Coibion, 2012. "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks Big or Small?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-32, April.
    20. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    21. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Favero, Carlo A., 1998. "Measuring monetary policy with VAR models: An evaluation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1069-1112, June.
    22. Cúrdia, Vasco & Woodford, Michael, 2011. "The central-bank balance sheet as an instrument of monetarypolicy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 54-79, January.
    23. Kashyap, Anil K & Stein, Jeremy C & Wilcox, David W, 1993. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 78-98, March.
    24. Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1994. "Monetary policy in economic transition: Lessons from the French post-war experience," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 891-898, April.
    25. Christina D. Romer & David Romer, 2002. "The evolution of economic understanding and postwar stabilization policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 11-78.
    26. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2006. "Distance to Frontier, Selection, and Economic Growth," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(1), pages 37-74, March.
    27. Edward Nelson, 2004. "The U.K.s rocky road to stability," Monetary Trends, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Oct.
    28. Ramey, Valerie A. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1998. "Costly capital reallocation and the effects of government spending," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 145-194, June.
    29. Cooley, Thomas F & Ohanian, Lee E, 1997. "Postwar British Economic Growth and the Legacy of Keynes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(3), pages 439-472, June.
    30. Mr. Tomás J. T. Baliño & Mr. Charles Enoch & Mr. William E. Alexander, 1995. "The Adoption of Indirect Instruments of Monetary Policy," IMF Occasional Papers 1995/008, International Monetary Fund.
    31. Gerald Carlino & Robert Defina, 1998. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 572-587, November.
    32. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 121-184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Dani Rodrik, 1994. "Getting Interventions Right: How South Korea and Taiwan Grew Rich," NBER Working Papers 4964, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Alessandra Casella & Barry Eichengreen, 1991. "Halting Inflation in Italy and France After World War II," NBER Working Papers 3852, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    36. Blinder, Alan S, 1987. "Credit Rationing and Effective Supply Failures," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(386), pages 327-352, June.
    37. repec:ucp:bkecon:9780226519944 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Matthew D. Shapiro, 1994. "Federal Reserve Policy: Cause and Effect," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 307-334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Michael Woodford, 2010. "Financial Intermediation and Macroeconomic Analysis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 21-44, Fall.
    40. Eric M. Leeper & Jennifer E. Roush, 2003. "Putting \\"M\\" back in monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1217-1264.
    41. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H, 1972. "Money, Debt, and Economic Activity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(5), pages 951-977, Sept.-Oct.
    42. Schreft, Stacey L., 1992. "Welfare-improving credit controls," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 57-72, October.
    43. Mojon, Benoît, 2008. "When did unsystematic monetary policy have an effect on inflation?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 487-497, April.
    44. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 435-439, May.
    45. Boschen, John F & Mills, Leonard O, 1995. "The Relation between Narrative and Money Market Indicators of Monetary Policy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(1), pages 24-44, January.
    46. Benati, Luca & Goodhart, Charles, 2010. "Monetary Policy Regimes and Economic Performance: The Historical Record, 1979-2008," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 21, pages 1159-1236, Elsevier.
    47. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
    48. Tobin, James, 1970. "Deposit Interest Ceilings as a Monetary Control," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 4-14, February.
    49. Hoover, Kevin D. & Perez, Stephen J., 1994. "Money may matter, but how could you know?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 89-99, August.
    50. Guesnerie, Roger & Roberts, Kevin, 1984. "Effective Policy Tools and Quantity Controls," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(1), pages 59-86, January.
    51. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
    52. Monnet,Eric, 2019. "Controlling Credit," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108400084, September.
    53. Richard G. Davis, 1971. "An Analysis of Quantitative Credit Controls and Related Devices," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 2(1), pages 65-104.
    54. Demetriades, Panicos O. & Luintel, Kul B., 2001. "Financial restraints in the South Korean miracle," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 459-479, April.
    55. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    56. Ms. Mitra Farahbaksh & Mr. Gabriel Sensenbrenner, 1996. "Bank-By-Bank Credit Ceilings: Issues and Experiences," IMF Working Papers 1996/063, International Monetary Fund.
    57. Benoît Mojon, 1998. "Monetary Policy Under a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime, the Case of France 1987-1996," Working Papers 1998-14, CEPII research center.
    58. Romer, Christina D. & Romer, David H., 1994. "Monetary policy matters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 75-88, August.
    59. Hoover, Kevin D. & Perez, Stephen J., 1994. "Post hoc ergo propter once more an evaluation of 'does monetary policy matter?' in the spirit of James Tobin," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 47-74, August.
    60. Capie,Forrest, 2010. "The Bank of England," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521192828, September.
    61. Eric M. Leeper & Jennifer E. Roush, 2003. "Putting \"M\" back in monetary policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 761, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    2. Sun, Rongrong, 2013. "Does monetary policy matter in China? A narrative approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 56-74.
    3. Leeper, Eric M., 1997. "Narrative and VAR approaches to monetary policy: Common identification problems," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 641-657, December.
    4. Collard, Fabrice & Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien, 2007. "The Dynamic Effects of Disinflation Policies," IDEI Working Papers 426, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    5. James Cloyne & Patrick Hürtgen, 2016. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy: A New Measure for the United Kingdom," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 75-102, October.
    6. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    7. John W. Keating & Logan J. Kelly & A. Lee Smith & Victor J. Valcarcel, 2019. "A Model of Monetary Policy Shocks for Financial Crises and Normal Conditions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(1), pages 227-259, February.
    8. Giuseppe De Arcangelis & Giorgio Di Giorgio, 1999. "Monetary policy shocks and transmission in Italy: A VAR analysis," Economics Working Papers 446, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    9. Tim Willems, 2020. "What Do Monetary Contractions Do? Evidence From Large Tightenings," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 41-58, October.
    10. Mohamed Douch, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy and Financial Crisis," Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, Cankaya University, Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 1(7), pages 1-35, May.
    11. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    12. Hassan, Rubina & Shahzad, Mirza Muhammad, 2011. "A macroeconometric framework for monetary policy evaluation: A case study of Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 118-137, January.
    13. Soyoung Kim, 2013. "Vector autoregressive models for macroeconomic policy analysis," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 23, pages 555-572, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Michael T. Owyang & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Structural breaks and regional disparities in the transmission of monetary policy," Working Papers 2003-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    15. Thore Schlaak & Malte Rieth & Maximilian Podstawski, 2023. "Monetary policy, external instruments, and heteroskedasticity," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(1), pages 161-200, January.
    16. Norrbin, Stefan, 2001. "What Have We Learned from Empirical Tests of the Monetary Transmission Effect," Working Paper Series 121, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    17. Auer, Simone, 2019. "Monetary policy shocks and foreign investment income: Evidence from a large Bayesian VAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 142-166.
    18. Sun, Rongrong, 2014. "Review over Empirical Evidence on Real Effects of Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 58513, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Marvin J. Barth III & Valerie A. Ramey, 2002. "The Cost Channel of Monetary Transmission," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 199-256, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Tim Willems, 2018. "What Do Monetary Contractions Do? Evidence From Large, Unanticipated Tightenings," IMF Working Papers 2018/211, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. Monetary Policy without Interest Rates: Evidence from France's Golden Age (1948 to 1973) Using a Narrative Approach (AEJ:MA 2014) in ReplicationWiki

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:6:y:2014:i:4:p:137-69. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.