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Monetary Policy without Interest Rates: Evidence from France's Golden Age (1948 to 1973) Using a Narrative Approach

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  • Eric Monnet

Abstract

Central banking in France from 1948 to 1973 was a paradigmatic example of a policy that relied on quantities rather than interest rates. Standard SVAR analyses support the common view that monetary policy was ineffective during this period. However, this approach fails to identify the stance of monetary policy since it does not account for the specificity of quantitative controls on money and credit. An alternative identification strategy based on a narrative approach suggests that monetary policy shocks had strong and lasting effects in the conventional direction and accounted for nearly half of the variance in output and price levels.

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  • Eric Monnet, 2014. "Monetary Policy without Interest Rates: Evidence from France's Golden Age (1948 to 1973) Using a Narrative Approach," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 137-169, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:6:y:2014:i:4:p:137-69
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.6.4.137
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    Cited by:

    1. Sultan Mehmood & Avner Seror, 2019. "The Political Economy of Foreign Aid and Growth:Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 19-10, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    2. Jalil, Andrew J. & Rua, Gisela, 2016. "Inflation expectations and recovery in spring 1933," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 26-50.
    3. Andrew Jalil & Gisela Rua, 2015. "Inflation Expectations and Recovery from the Depression in 1933: Evidence from the Narrative Record," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 22 Apr 2015.
    4. Monnet, Eric, 2019. "Interest rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 13896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Bignon, Vincent & Flandreau, Marc, 2018. "The Other Way: A Narrative History of the Bank of France," CEPR Discussion Papers 13138, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Aikman, David & Bush, Oliver & Taylor, Alan M., 2016. "Monetary Versus Macroprudential Policies: Causal Impacts of Interest Rates and Credit Controls in the Era of the UK Radcliffe Report," CEPR Discussion Papers 11353, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Kim, Jihae & Kim, Soyoung & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2019. "Macroprudential policy in Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. Turalay Kenç, 2016. "Macroprudential regulation: history, theory and policy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.),Macroprudential policy, volume 86, pages 1-15, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Richter, Björn & Schularick, Moritz & Shim, Ilhyock, 2019. "The costs of macroprudential policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 263-282.
    10. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 213-263.
    11. G. Bazot & M. D. Bordo & E. Monnet, 2014. "The Price of Stability. The balance sheet policy of the Banque de France and the Gold Standard (1880-1914)," Working papers 510, Banque de France.
    12. Michael D. Bordo & Pierre L. Siklos, 2017. "Central Banks: Evolution and Innovation in Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 23847, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. E. Monnet & D. Puy, 2016. "Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization?," Working papers 592, Banque de France.
    14. Svartzman, Romain & Dron, Dominique & Espagne, Etienne, 2019. "From ecological macroeconomics to a theory of endogenous money for a finite planet," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 108-120.
    15. Björn Richter & Moritz Schularick & Ilhyock Shim, 2018. "The macroeconomic effects of macroprudential policy," BIS Working Papers 740, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Monnet, E., 2016. "Monetary policy without interest rates. The French experience with quantitative controls (1948 to 1973)," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 17, January..
    17. Kelber, A. & Monnet, E., 2014. "Macroprudential policy and quantitative instruments: a European historical perspective," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 18, pages 151-160, April.
    18. Bazot, Guillaume & Bordo, Michael D. & Monnet, Eric, 2016. "International shocks and the balance sheet of the Bank of France under the classical gold standard," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 87-107.
    19. Gianni Toniolo & Eugene N. White, 2015. "The Evolution of the Financial Stability Mandate: From Its Origins to the Present Day," NBER Working Papers 20844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

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