IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/4342.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Federal Reserve Policy: Cause and Effect

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew D. Shapiro

Abstract

Romer and Romer (1989,1990,1992) identify dates where the Federal Reserve appears to have shifted its policy towards reducing the rate of inflation. This paper examines the economic context that drives this decision. It finds that the Fed appears to weigh the outlook for unemployment as well as that for inflation in making its decision about disinflation. Previous work has not examined the course of inflation over the disinflations. This paper finds responses of the inflation rate to the "disinflations" only in a specification where the effects of the policy are presumed to be permanent Moreover, the Volcker disinflation is found to be the only "disinflation" to reduce inflation permanently. The disinflation after the 1973 OPEC price increases was effective, but only temporarily. Other disinflations had negligible impacts on the rate of inflation over all horizons. Variables measuring the expected present discounted values of unemployment and inflation are constructed. These variables are used in a discrete-choice model to explain the Fed's decision to disinflate. This model does a fairly good job of explaining the Fed's decisions. Both inflation and unemployment drive the Fed's decision. For some episodes, notably in the 1970's, inflation is the main variable driving the decision. In the 1969 and 1988 episodes, unemployment matters more.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew D. Shapiro, 1993. "Federal Reserve Policy: Cause and Effect," NBER Working Papers 4342, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4342
    Note: ME EFG
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w4342.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Feldstein, Martin S, 1979. "The Welfare Cost of Permanent Inflation and Optimal Short-Run Economic Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(4), pages 749-768, August.
    2. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 121-184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Goodfriend, Marvin & King, Robert G., 2005. "The incredible Volcker disinflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 981-1015, July.
    2. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 2013. "The Great Inflation Drift," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 181-209, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Leeper, Eric M., 1997. "Narrative and VAR approaches to monetary policy: Common identification problems," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 641-657, December.
    4. Romer, Christina D. & Romer, David H., 1997. "Identification and the narrative approach: A reply to Leeper," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 659-665, December.
    5. Claus Brand & Nuno Cassola, 2004. "A money demand system for euro area M3," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(8), pages 817-838.
    6. Ramey, Valerie A. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1998. "Costly capital reallocation and the effects of government spending," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 145-194, June.
    7. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    8. Robert Barsky & Christopher L. House & Miles Kimball, 2003. "Do Flexible Durable Goods Prices Undermine Sticky Price Models?," NBER Working Papers 9832, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Eric Monnet, 2014. "Monetary Policy without Interest Rates: Evidence from France's Golden Age (1948 to 1973) Using a Narrative Approach," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 137-169, October.
    10. Anton Brender & Florence Pisani, 1995. "L'« atterrissage en douceur » de l'économie américaine : vers un nouveau mode de conduite de la politique monétaire ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 55(1), pages 171-209.
    11. Brand, Claus & Cassola, Nuno, 2000. "A money demand system for euro area M3," Working Paper Series 0039, European Central Bank.
    12. Chan Guk Huh & Kevin J. Lansing, 1998. "Federal Reserve credibility and inflation scares," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
    13. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "Identification in Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 59-86, Summer.
    14. Collard, Fabrice & Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien, 2007. "The Dynamic Effects of Disinflation Policies," IDEI Working Papers 426, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    15. Christina D. Romer, 1999. "Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 23-44, Spring.
    16. Huh, Chan G. & Lansing, Kevin J., 2000. "Expectations, credibility, and disinflation in a small macroeconomic model," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 51-86.
    17. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    18. Sun, Rongrong, 2013. "Does monetary policy matter in China? A narrative approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 56-74.
    19. Stefan Schiman & Harald Badinger, 2020. "Measuring Monetary Policy with Residual Sign Restrictions at Known Shock Dates," WIFO Working Papers 608, WIFO.
    20. Robert B. Barsky & Christopher L. House & Miles S. Kimball, 2007. "Sticky-Price Models and Durable Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 984-998, June.
    21. Boschen, John F. & Weise, Charles L., 2001. "The Ex Ante Credibility of Disinflation Policy and the Cost of Reducing Inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 323-347, July.
    22. Rodrigo Valdés, 1998. "Efectos de la Política Monetaria en Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 35(104), pages 97-125.
    23. Charles A. Fleischman, 1999. "The causes of business cycles and the cyclicality of real wages," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. Paweł Młodkowski, 2008. "Kredyt handlowy a polityka pieniężna NBP," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 1-18.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Magda Kandil, 2010. "The asymmetric effects of demand shocks: international evidence on determinants and implications," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(17), pages 2127-2145.
    2. Amano, R. A. & van Norden, S., 1998. "Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 299-316, April.
    3. Yunus AÇCI, & Izzet TASAR, 2016. "An Analysis On Monetary Condition Index In Turkey By Using Structural Var Analysis," EcoForum, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Public Administration - Economy, Business Administration and Tourism Department., vol. 5(2), pages 1-14, July.
    4. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ahmed, Khalid & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Jiao, Zhilun, 2019. "Resource curse hypothesis and role of oil prices in USA," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    5. Kui-Wai Li, 2013. "The US monetary performance prior to the 2008 crisis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(24), pages 3450-3461, August.
    6. Rossana, Robert J., 1988. "Interrelated Demands for Buffer Stocks and Productive Inputs: Estimates for Two-Digit Manufacturing Industries," Department of Economics and Business - Archive 259428, North Carolina State University, Department of Economics.
    7. David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 2003. "Monetary Policy Regimes and Beliefs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 1-30, February.
    8. Michel DIMOU & Alexandra SCHAFFAR & Zhihong CHEN & Shihe FU, 2008. "LA CROISSANCE URBAINE CHINOISE RECONSIDeReE," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 27, pages 109-131.
    9. Bosker, Maarten & Brakman, Steven & Garretsen, Harry & Schramm, Marc, 2008. "A century of shocks: The evolution of the German city size distribution 1925-1999," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 330-347, July.
    10. Gerardo Manzo & Antonio Picca, 2020. "The Impact of Sovereign Shocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(7), pages 3113-3132, July.
    11. KAMKOUM, Arnaud Cedric, 2023. "The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis and its Effects: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis of the Impact of its Quantitative Easing Programs," Thesis Commons d7pvg, Center for Open Science.
    12. Bierens, H.J. & Broersma, L., 1991. "The relation between unemployment and interest rate : some international evidence," Serie Research Memoranda 0112, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    13. Muhammad Zia Ullah Khan & Muhammad Illyas & Muqqadas Rahman & Chaudhary Abdul Rahman, 2015. "Money Monetization and Economic Growth in Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(4), pages 184-192, April.
    14. Xu, Haifeng & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2012. "Dynamic linkages of stock prices between the BRICs and the United States: Effects of the 2008–09 financial crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 344-352.
    15. Guili Liao & Qimeng Liu & Rongmao Zhang & Shifang Zhang, 2022. "Rank test of unit‐root hypothesis with AR‐GARCH errors," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(5), pages 695-719, September.
    16. Yap, Wei Yim & Lam, Jasmine S.L., 2006. "Competition dynamics between container ports in East Asia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-51, January.
    17. Carol Alexander & Anca Dimitriu, 2003. "Equity Indexing: Conitegration and Stock Price Dispersion: A Regime Switiching Approach to market Efficiency," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2003-02, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    18. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Xiaojie Xu, 2017. "The rolling causal structure between the Chinese stock index and futures," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 31(4), pages 491-509, November.
    20. Erasmia Kotroni & Dimitra Kaika & Efthimios Zervas, 2020. "Environmental Kuznets Curve in Greece in the period 1960-2014," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(4), pages 364-370.
    21. Vincent Brémond & Emmanuel Hache & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2016. "The Oil Price and Exchange Rate Relationship Revisited: A time-varying VAR parameter approach," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 13(1), pages 97-131, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4342. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.